Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T23:49:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
50 0x503c…f449 sports 232 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$183 (+6%) realized +$185 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate57%129W / 98L
Drawdown75%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$57now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$22
7 days+$46
14 days+$43
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$133
other 27% +$81
crypto 7% −$64
finance 3% −$31
culture 1% −$9
world 1% −$11
politics 1% +$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +13.9% +3.0% 58% 58% +5.1%
≤30d 42 +9.1% -1.3% 60% 60% +1.6%
≤90d 167 -11.6% -20.1% 51% 48% -21.5%
all 227 +7.4% -2.8% 57% 53% -4.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 53% -4.1%
10% -12.1% 48% -13.3%
15% -20.6% 39% -21.7%
20% -28.4% 32% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +20% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$10 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$57
Realized+$185
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses129 / 98
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions5
Markets (closed)227 / 232
History coverage128d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 227 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Yes 89¢ 88¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 62¢ 62¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Yes 25¢ 24¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score No 58¢ 58¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? Yes 25¢ 19¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +62%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $5 +$3 +65%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? Jun 19 $5 +$6 +119%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $7 +$4 +55%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$4 +40%
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? Jun 18 $10 +$3 +34%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 +$14 +134%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$7 +73%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $28 +$14 +49%
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$3 +34%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -99%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +101%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$5 +90%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $4 +$15 +365%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 +$12 +226%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$8 +83%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $15 +$8 +52%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$5 +105%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Haiti vs. Scotland: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $5 +$6 +109%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $20 +$3 +14%
Will England win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +16%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-10? Jun 11 $10 +$3 +32%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-09? Jun 10 $15 +$3 +18%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $3 −$3 -99%
MVP Fight Night: Ronda Rousey vs. Gina Carano May 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 May 4-10? May 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 06 $10 −$10 -96%
Will SC Bastia win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-11? Apr 11 $29 −$25 -86%
BMW Open, Qualification: Jan Choinski vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Apr 11 $110 −$80 -73%
Thunder vs. Nuggets Apr 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score BUY No 58¢ $4 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 89¢ $25 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 81¢ $8 21h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 23¢ $11 22h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 22h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $5 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 22h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 22h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $5 30h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 30h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 30h
Will Trump praise Lionel Messi by June 30? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $20 46h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 53¢ $20 2d
Colombia to score first vs. Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 2d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 42¢ $10 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 64¢ $18 2d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 4d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 4d
Argentina to score first vs. Algeria? BUY Yes 74¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 71¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 4d
Belgium to score first vs. Egypt? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 4d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $5 4d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY No 66¢ $10 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $57.43 · official $57.43 (match) · 448 history records