Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T02:22:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x503c…4574 world 154 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$576 (+13%) realized +$353 · open +$33
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate22%27W / 94L
Drawdown84%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$798now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$60
7 days+$4
14 days−$761
30 days+$270
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 64% −$203
other 31% +$702
sports 2% −$71
politics 1% −$16
economics 1% −$16
crypto 1% +$5
culture 1% +$6
tech 0% −$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-31.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -17.9% -25.7% 36% 36% -8.1%
≤30d 55 -28.4% -35.2% 15% 15% -63.5%
≤90d 121 -24.0% -31.2% 22% 15% -31.2%
all 121 -24.0% -31.2% 22% 15% -31.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -31.2% 15% -31.2%
10% -37.8% 12% -37.8%
15% -43.8% 10% -43.8%
20% -49.3% 8% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 67% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -24% · $-wt +10% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$19 · ×4.18 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$798
Realized+$353
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses27 / 94
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions33
Markets (closed)121 / 154
History coverage74d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown84%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 121 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $200 $337 +$137 (+69%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Yes 10¢ 72¢ $10 $72 +$62 (+620%)
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Yes 48¢ 87¢ $30 $54 +$24 (+81%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by June 30? Yes 10¢ 7¢ $60 $41 −$19 (-32%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $31 $36 +$5 (+16%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $30 $34 +$4 (+12%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+4%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $30 $27 −$3 (-10%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European country? Yes 6¢ 1¢ $119 $26 −$93 (-78%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $26 −$4 (-15%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-19%)
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-23%)
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 22¢ 20¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-11%)
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-13%)
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 46¢ 30¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-36%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 61¢ 74¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+20%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 53¢ 13¢ $20 $5 −$15 (-75%)
Will J.D. Vance attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 52¢ 77¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+49%)
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-59%)
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-26%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-38%)
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Yes 77¢ 69¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-10%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $15 $2 −$12 (-83%)
Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by June 30, 2026? Yes 5¢ 1¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-86%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $10 +$16 +158%
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $20 +$7 +34%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 15 $10 +$17 +170%
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? Jun 14 $10 +$10 +92%
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? Jun 14 $110 +$56 +51%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? Jun 13 $10 −$3 -31%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 13 $10 −$5 -53%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 13 $30 −$21 -71%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 09 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Peru win on 2026-06-08? Jun 09 $5 −$5 -100%
US recession by end of 2026? Jun 07 $10 −$1 -8%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $20 +$32 +158%
Will England vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Myanmar vs. Guam end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Bermuda end in a draw? Jun 07 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Paraguay vs. Nicaragua end in a draw? Jun 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 04 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $11 −$10 -87%
Trump out as President by May 31? Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by May 31? Jun 01 $597 −$597 -100%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma Jun 01 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $5 −$5 -100%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Arne Slot out as Liverpool Head Coach by May 31, 2026? May 30 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 29 $200 −$186 -93%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Saudi Arabia bans US military aircraft by May 22? May 22 $100 −$96 -96%
Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Estonia win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Norway win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will France win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Cyprus win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$1,418 +13510%
Will Israel win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 17 $31 +$12 +39%
Will Malta win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 16 $1 $0 -37%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 2¢ $10 1h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 85¢ $26 1h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $27 1h
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? SELL No 22¢ $20 15h
Will USD fall to 1.7M Iranian rials by June 30? BUY No 11¢ $10 17h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 17h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $30 23h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 17, 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 25h
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju BUY Yes 10¢ $30 25h
Will JD Vance sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $30 25h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? SELL Yes 44¢ $166 25h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 34h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? SELL Yes 39¢ $7 34h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another European countr BUY Yes 19¢ $100 34h
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 34h
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $9 34h
Will no qualifying diplomatic US-Iran meeting occur by June 30, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $20 38h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan? BUY Yes 56¢ $10 38h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? BUY Yes 2¢ $5 40h
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 30¢ $100 2d
Will Donald Trump sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 53¢ $20 3d
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 3d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 3d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $10 3d
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 4d
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last E BUY Yes 46¢ $10 4d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 4d
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $31 6d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 0¢ $15 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $798.21 · official $798.21 (match) · 339 history records