trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 2 | +3.0% | -6.8% | 100% | 0% | -6.7% |
| ≤30d | 5 | +2.0% | -7.7% | 80% | 0% | -7.9% |
| ≤90d | 7 | -12.8% | -21.1% | 71% | 0% | -11.5% |
| all | 8 | -11.7% | -20.1% | 62% | 0% | -11.6% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -20.1% | 0% | -11.6% |
| 10% | -27.7% | 0% | -20.1% |
| 15% | -34.7% | 0% | -27.8% |
| 20% | -41.1% | 0% | -34.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | No | 62¢ | 90¢ | $17 | $24 | +$8 (+46%) |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | No | 77¢ | 88¢ | $10 | $12 | +$2 (+16%) |
| Will Israel strike 5 countries in 2026? | Yes | 34¢ | 34¢ | $3 | $3 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Will Italy recognize Palestine before 2027? | Yes | 21¢ | 16¢ | $3 | $3 | −$1 (-23%) |
| Will Japan recognize Palestine before 2027? | Yes | 41¢ | 10¢ | $11 | $3 | −$8 (-77%) |
| Aziz Akhannouch out as Morocco Prime Minister by December 31, 2026? | No | 12¢ | 15¢ | $1 | $1 | +$0 (+27%) |
| Israel and Saudi Arabia normalize relations before 2027? | Yes | 13¢ | 12¢ | $1 | $1 | −$0 (-12%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? | Jun 22 | $6 | $0 | +5% |
| Modi out by December 31, 2026? | Jun 17 | $5 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | Jun 13 | $4 | $0 | -3% |
| Will New Zealand recognize Palestine before 2027? | Jun 01 | $3 | $0 | +6% |
| Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027? | May 29 | $6 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Russia rejoin the G7 before 2027? | May 21 | $20 | $0 | +0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? | Apr 01 | $50 | −$3 | -5% |
| Will Perplexity AI be acquired before 2027? | Mar 17 | $4 | $0 | -4% |