Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T07:41:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
50 0x503a…f862 politics 175 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$943 (+0%) realized +$943 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate17%30W / 145L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,796per market
Trades / day3.9pace
Fees−$20est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$35
14 days−$154
30 days−$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 47% −$181
other 37% +$1,595
sports 9% −$536
culture 3% −$13
world 2% −$6
economics 1% −$6
crypto 1% +$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-9.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 57 +1.0% -8.6% 12% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 141 -6.9% -15.8% 9% 6% -9.5%
all 175 +0.5% -9.1% 17% 13% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.1% 13% -9.3%
10% -17.8% 13% -18.0%
15% -25.7% 11% -25.9%
20% -33.0% 9% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,544) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$100 vs −$15 · ×6.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$943
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses30 / 145
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$20
Open positions0
Markets (closed)175 / 175
History coverage124d
Avg bet$1,796
Trades / day3.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 175 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 19 $3,031 −$3 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 19 $518 −$1 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,106 −$2 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 17 $160 +$1 +0%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 17 $1,299 −$1 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 17 $1,265 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $2,313 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,284 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 16 $1,395 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,203 −$4 -0%
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,372 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 14 $6,511 −$8 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $3,734 −$4 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1,296 −$2 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,198 −$2 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 11 $1,404 −$2 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,503 −$4 -0%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $4,277 −$5 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,327 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $3,552 −$4 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $4,566 −$6 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,120 −$2 -0%
Hurricanes vs. Golden Knights Jun 07 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,925 −$5 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 05 $2,544 −$4 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 05 $48 −$48 -100%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 04 $4,044 −$5 -0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $4,478 −$6 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 03 $2,738 −$4 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $2,938 −$5 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 03 $64 +$67 +105%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,977 −$4 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $1,336 −$2 -0%
Chicago White Sox vs. Minnesota Twins Jun 02 $41 −$41 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $325 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in May? Jun 02 $1,240 +$5 +0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $908 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 31 $1,003 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 31 $2,387 −$4 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $1,113 −$2 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $9,441 −$10 -0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 30 $1,125 −$1 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $4,599 −$5 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $2,514 −$3 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 29 $2,731 −$4 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $1,018 −$1 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $2,453 −$3 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $2,528 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,282 −$2 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 25 $68 +$68 +101%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $467 16m
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $467 1h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $517 3h
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $518 4h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $572 27h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $573 28h
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $1,298 2d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $1,299 2d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,263 2d
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,265 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,210 2d
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,212 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,282 3d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,284 3d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,392 3d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,395 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,192 3d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,194 3d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,370 4d
Will Juan Branco win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,372 4d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,178 5d
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,180 5d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,252 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,253 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,448 6d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,449 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,295 7d
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,296 7d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,197 8d
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,198 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 609 history records