Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T01:33:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5038…ae15 weather 189 markets active 2h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$395 (+1%) realized +$419 · open −$24
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate82%153W / 33L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day9.3pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$447now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$142
7 days+$133
14 days+$152
30 days+$155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 36% −$1,157
other 22% +$436
economics 11% +$441
world 9% −$110
finance 7% −$424
sports 6% +$1,116
politics 5% +$100
crypto 4% +$20
tech 0% +$3
culture 0% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -8.5% -17.2% 68% 18% -6.8%
≤30d 26 -6.2% -15.1% 73% 19% -6.8%
≤90d 86 -6.8% -15.7% 73% 10% -14.5%
all 186 -1.4% -10.8% 82% 10% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 10% -8.8%
10% -19.3% 6% -17.6%
15% -27.1% 4% -25.5%
20% -34.3% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
86% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +3% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$82 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$447
Realized+$419
Unrealized−$24
Win rate (resolved)82%
Wins / losses153 / 33
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions2
Markets (closed)186 / 189
History coverage159d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day9.3
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 186 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 93¢ 87¢ $373 $349 −$24 (-6%)
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 97¢ 97¢ $97 $97 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 22 $272 +$25 +9%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $183 −$23 -13%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $309 +$10 +3%
Will Ecuador win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $385 +$12 +3%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $46 −$33 -72%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $182 −$3 -2%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $514 +$31 +6%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 AND Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $20 −$16 -80%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $342 −$76 -22%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $365 +$35 +10%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $126 +$14 +11%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $266 +$21 +8%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? A Jun 20 $51 +$59 +116%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $723 +$87 +12%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Australia win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $318 +$80 +25%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $326 +$22 +7%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $6 −$5 -85%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $341 +$15 +4%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $79 +$3 +4%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $358 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $142 −$132 -93%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $81 +$19 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $97 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 1? Jun 01 $418 +$1 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 26 $98 +$2 +2%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $53 +$1 +2%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $680 +$35 +5%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 15 $13 −$12 -92%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 15 $37 +$2 +5%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their May 14 $151 +$12 +8%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 14 $27 +$3 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 13? May 13 $485 +$6 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 13? May 13 $28 −$9 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 13? May 13 $78 −$39 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 13? May 13 $74 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 12? May 12 $403 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 12? May 12 $284 +$3 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 12? May 12 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 12? May 12 $9 −$4 -43%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on May 11? May 11 $146 +$2 +2%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? May 11 $996 +$23 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 9? May 09 $188 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 9? May 09 $937 +$3 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 8? May 08 $535 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 7? May 07 $263 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 7? May 07 $54 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on May 7? May 07 $281 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on May 6? May 06 $650 +$4 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on May 6? May 06 $519 +$2 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 95¢ $67 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 93¢ $93 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 90¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 90¢ $7 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 88¢ $96 1h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $93 11h
Will Iran win Group G in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $281 15h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 86¢ $88 19h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 95¢ $95 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $121 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $16 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 97¢ $183 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $29 20h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 97¢ $194 21h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 74¢ $6 21h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 74¢ $20 21h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 74¢ $37 21h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 74¢ $4 21h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 74¢ $4 21h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 14¢ $4 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $74 21h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $12 21h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 8¢ $9 21h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 8¢ $3 21h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $28 21h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 27¢ $14 21h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 90¢ $179 21h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $88 22h
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $182 22h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 99¢ $14 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $446.70 · official $446.70 (match) · 1627 history records