Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T16:41:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5036…391d world 109 markets active 2h ago coverage 269d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1 (-0%) realized −$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate38%40W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$113per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$23est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$161now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days−$19
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 31% −$17
other 24% $0
politics 17% $0
sports 16% +$9
economics 10% +$2
finance 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.6% -9.0% 62% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 25 +0.0% -9.5% 40% 4% -10.0%
≤90d 80 -0.1% -9.6% 41% 2% -9.6%
all 105 -0.6% -10.1% 38% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 2% -9.6%
10% -18.7% 1% -18.2%
15% -26.5% 1% -26.1%
20% -33.7% 1% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

269d coverage
Net worth$161
Realized−$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses40 / 65
Est. fees paid−$23
Open positions4
Markets (closed)105 / 109
History coverage269d
Avg bet$113
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $159 $160 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 73¢ 76¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+4%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 49¢ 50¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+3%)
Will Yair Lapid be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-68%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $175 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $175 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $33 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $19 +$1 +3%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $75 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $144 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 12 $157 $0 +0%
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +58%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $196 −$4 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $343 +$1 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $325 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 06 $3 $0 +2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 05 $160 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $348 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $176 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $11 +$1 +6%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $178 −$6 -3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $24 −$4 -18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 25 $43 +$3 +7%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 25 $350 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $180 $0 -0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $22 −$12 -54%
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 21 $171 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $170 +$2 +1%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 15 $7 −$2 -29%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 14 $10 −$2 -19%
Will the Denver Nuggets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 27 $98 −$1 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $196 +$4 +2%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $8 $0 +4%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 25 $51 +$1 +2%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $203 $0 +0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $334 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $141 +$1 +1%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $25 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $874 +$6 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $40 $0 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 22 $63 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $397 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 21 $340 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $151 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 20 $11 $0 +3%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 19 $58 −$1 -1%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 19 $169 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 17 $5 $0 +4%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $254 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $159 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $168 30h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $175 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $176 38h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $175 38h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $33 44h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $33 46h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $7 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $20 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 3d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 76¢ $35 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $40 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $75 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $39 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 82¢ $105 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 82¢ $144 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $31 6d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $127 7d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $157 7d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 9d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 11d
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $21 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 66¢ $98 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 68¢ $27 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $160.67 · official $159.90 (match) · 479 history records