Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T05:14:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
50 0x5035…cf0d crypto 293 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$236 (+1%) realized +$238 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate48%134W / 146L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$101per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Fees−$95est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$870now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$130
7 days+$335
14 days+$490
30 days+$453
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 67% −$403
sports 18% +$446
other 12% −$390
world 2% −$185
politics 1% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 139 -2.4% -11.7% 42% 39% -7.3%
≤30d 209 +2.3% -7.5% 46% 44% -6.9%
≤90d 280 +0.1% -9.4% 48% 44% -11.2%
all 280 +0.1% -9.4% 48% 44% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 44% -11.2%
10% -18.1% 41% -19.7%
15% -26.0% 36% -27.5%
20% -33.2% 34% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$71 · ×1.03 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$870
Realized+$238
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses134 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$95
Open positions13
Markets (closed)280 / 293
History coverage71d
Avg bet$101
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 67¢ 68¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $75 $84 +$9 (+12%)
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? No 65¢ 66¢ $80 $81 +$1 (+1%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 7¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-1%)
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 30¢ $80 $79 −$1 (-2%)
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $80 $74 −$6 (-7%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 57¢ 52¢ $79 $72 −$7 (-9%)
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $60 $58 −$2 (-4%)
World Cup: Scoreless Team? No 24¢ 27¢ $48 $54 +$6 (+13%)
Will Switzerland go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? No 42¢ 41¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) DR Congo 49¢ 50¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 48¢ $25 $24 −$1 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$12 +20%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $66 +$19 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$33 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $115 −$115 -100%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$33 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 16 $155 −$155 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 16 $116 −$116 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 16 $133 −$133 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $317 −$317 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 16 $142 +$168 +119%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $362 +$328 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $407 +$502 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $220 +$189 +86%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$17 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 16 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $69 −$69 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $363 −$121 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 16 $35 −$35 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $203 −$203 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $141 −$141 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $240 −$240 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 16 $157 −$157 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 16 $511 −$8 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $41 −$41 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $834 +$444 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $35 +$18 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 16 $311 +$341 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 16 $533 −$31 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 16 $504 −$163 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 16 $295 +$217 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 16 $165 +$131 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 16 $2 +$2 +126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 16 $269 −$228 -85%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 16 $320 −$51 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $141 +$178 +127%
Will South America (CONMEBOL) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $244 −$25 -10%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 16 $21 −$1 -4%
World Cup: Messi to Score a Free Kick? Jun 16 $38 −$8 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 16 $324 +$227 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $94 −$94 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 16 $242 +$81 +34%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $311 −$287 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $25 1h
Will Switzerland go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY No 42¢ $51 5h
Will United States go unbeaten in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $142 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $155 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $65 12h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY DR Congo 49¢ $36 12h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo's national team advance the furthest at the 202 BUY No 57¢ $80 12h
World Cup: Scoreless Team? BUY No 24¢ $29 12h
World Cup: Scoreless Team? BUY No 24¢ $20 12h
Will Uzbekistan advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY Yes 31¢ $82 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 12h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $30 12h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $31 12h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $31 12h
Will Spirit reach the Grand Final at IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY No 65¢ $81 12h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 67¢ $102 12h
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $82 12h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $82 12h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $77 12h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 7¢ $82 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $362 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $407 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $409 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 52¢ $220 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 17¢ $133 13h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $67 13h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $48 13h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $86 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $869.84 · official $869.85 (match) · 1016 history records