Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T05:21:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5034…0f31 crypto 120 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$153 (-8%) realized −$153 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate32%39W / 81L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day33.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$275
7 days−$377
14 days−$344
30 days−$344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$344
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 89 -5.5% -14.5% 30% 29% -38.4%
≤30d 120 +2.0% -7.7% 32% 32% -29.1%
≤90d 120 +2.0% -7.7% 32% 32% -29.1%
all 120 +2.0% -7.7% 32% 32% -29.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover33.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.7% 32% -29.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.5% 31% -35.9%
15% -24.6% 28% -42.1%
20% -32.0% 23% -47.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -23% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +18% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$11 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$153
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)32%
Wins / losses39 / 81
Open positions0
Markets (closed)120 / 120
History coverage8d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day33.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 120 Trades
no open positions (81 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 26 $87 −$83 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$78 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 26 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 26 $78 −$74 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 26 $79 −$75 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 26 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$3 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 26 $32 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 26 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$33 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 26 $27 +$11 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 26 $57 +$13 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$20 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 26 $31 +$14 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 26 $26 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 25 $36 −$9 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$6 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 25 $58 −$14 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 25 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 25 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 25 $58 +$34 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 25 $27 −$1 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 25 $31 −$30 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 25 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 25 $57 −$5 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 25 $11 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 25 $36 +$32 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$2 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 25 $1 −$1 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 25 $32 −$30 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 25 $16 −$10 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 25 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 25 $6 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 25 $4 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 25 $3 −$2 -63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 25 $1 +$24 +2243%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 25 $2 −$1 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 25 $6 +$6 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 25 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $1 +$1 +140%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 24 $16 +$17 +111%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $6 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 24 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 8¢ $9 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $103 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 28¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 24¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $8 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET SELL Up 69¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Down 9¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 92¢ $39 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $59 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET SELL Up 34¢ $35 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $26 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Up 88¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $5 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET SELL Down 68¢ $63 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 292 history records