Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:58:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5032…96fd crypto 1616 markets active 0h ago coverage 70d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate98%1587W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$6per market
Trades / day26.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$13
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 35 -12.7% -21.0% 69% 34% -11.6%
≤30d 35 -12.7% -21.0% 69% 34% -11.6%
≤90d 1614 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 1% -9.6%
all 1614 -0.3% -9.8% 98% 1% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover26.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 1% -9.6%
10% ← realistic here -18.4% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.3% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
99% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$5 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

70d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses1587 / 27
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1614 / 1616
History coverage70d ⚠
Avg bet$6
Trades / day26.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1614 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 47¢ 56¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+20%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 51¢ 56¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+9%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 46¢ 44¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Up 51¢ 44¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +42%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$3 +104%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -66%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -85%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 15 $4 +$2 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$2 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Apr 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Apr 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Apr 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Apr 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Apr 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Apr 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Apr 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Apr 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Apr 28 $10 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Apr 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Apr 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Apr 28 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Apr 28 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $0 3m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET SELL Down 7¢ $0 5m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 8m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 8m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 11¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET SELL Up 9¢ $0 10m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 13m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $2 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET SELL Up 39¢ $2 15m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 17m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $3 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 23m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET SELL Up 19¢ $1 25m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.00 · official $10.00 (match) · 3500 history records