Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T09:16:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x502f…f54b weather 56 markets active 2h ago coverage 57d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$24 (+2%) realized +$26 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate81%43W / 10L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$89now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$64
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% +$14
weather 36% +$2
crypto 18% +$3
finance 2% −$1
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 21 +11.0% +0.4% 90% 10% +4.0%
≤90d 53 -0.2% -9.7% 81% 6% -7.7%
all 53 -0.2% -9.7% 81% 6% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 6% -7.7%
10% -18.3% 6% -16.5%
15% -26.2% 6% -24.6%
20% -33.5% 6% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 42% · top 2 74% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -6% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$20 · ×0.26 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$89
Realized+$26
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)81%
Wins / losses43 / 10
Open positions3
Markets (closed)53 / 56
History coverage57d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 53 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 48¢ 54¢ $48 $54 +$6 (+13%)
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 19¢ 24¢ $19 $24 +$5 (+29%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Yes 24¢ 10¢ $24 $10 −$14 (-56%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 17 $15 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? Jun 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 7? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 7? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7? Jun 14 $17 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 07 $11 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 07 $80 +$95 +120%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $12 −$11 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 04 $76 −$74 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on May 31? Jun 02 $5 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 31? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 02 $15 $0 +3%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on May 31? Jun 02 $20 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 31? Jun 02 $20 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 27 $17 +$53 +301%
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $9 −$8 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $15 −$14 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $20 −$20 -96%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 24 $8 −$8 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 34°C or higher on May 22? May 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 22? May 24 $35 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 22°C on May 22? May 24 $40 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on May 17? May 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on May 17? May 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 29°C on May 17? May 22 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 38°C on May 17? May 22 $20 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 22 $20 +$1 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 17? May 22 $15 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 17 $3 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 17 $7 $0 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 17 $16 +$72 +438%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 13 $8 −$8 -96%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $650 in May? May 13 $25 −$1 -3%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 10? May 13 $10 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 7, 1AM ET May 10 $10 $0 +1%
Will CZ post 140-159 posts from May 1 to May 8, 2026? May 10 $20 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 4, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 07 $6 $0 +7%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on May 5? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C or higher on May 5? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C or higher on May 5? May 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on May 4? May 07 $20 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 28°C on April 30? May 04 $20 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $49 2h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $25 2h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 2h
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 14? BUY Yes 100¢ $15 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $15 11d
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $15 11d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $15 11d
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $15 11d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $15 18d
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 7? BUY Yes 99¢ $17 18d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet BUY Yes 99¢ $15 18d
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $15 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $6 18d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 7, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 18d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $38 21d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes $6 21d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 36¢ $28 21d
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes $6 21d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $48 21d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY Yes 40¢ $41 21d
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C or below on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $5 25d
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $670b and $680b on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $20 25d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on May 31? BUY No 100¢ $15 25d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on May 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $20 25d
Ethereum Up or Down - May 30, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 25d
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $9 32d
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 32d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 19 to May 26, 2026? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 32d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $88.90 · official $88.75 (match) · 108 history records