Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T07:59:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x502e…5442
sports · 48 markets active 4h ago
8.5score
+$6,111 +17%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5,827 · open +$284
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$11,520
Realized+$5,827
Unrealized+$284
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses20 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$322
Open positions13
Markets (closed)35 / 48
Avg bet$758
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown36%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 13 History 35 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,493
7 days+$3,138
14 days+$5,827
30 days+$5,827
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $1,986 $2,253 +$267 (+13%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 53¢ $1,000 $926 −$74 (-7%)
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 54¢ 62¢ $750 $868 +$118 (+16%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 49¢ 54¢ $750 $827 +$77 (+10%)
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 64¢ $750 $793 +$43 (+6%)
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 38¢ 40¢ $750 $780 +$30 (+4%)
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 50¢ $750 $758 +$8 (+1%)
Will Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $750 $743 −$7 (-1%)
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 52¢ $750 $743 −$7 (-1%)
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $750 $733 −$17 (-2%)
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $750 $732 −$18 (-2%)
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 41¢ 38¢ $750 $699 −$51 (-7%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? Yes 55¢ 48¢ $750 $665 −$85 (-11%)
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Sweden 52¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) Cerundolo 57¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Over 54¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Mensik vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5 Over 53¢ 0¢ $900 $0 −$900 (-100%)
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $289 $0 −$289 (-100%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Over 37¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Spread: England (-2.5) England 54¢ 0¢ $247 $0 −$247 (-100%)
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Zverev 38¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
Kostyuk vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 21.5 Over 55¢ 0¢ $500 $0 −$500 (-100%)
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Over 4.5 36¢ 0¢ $635 $0 −$635 (-100%)
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Over 57¢ 0¢ $600 $0 −$600 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,393 +$605 +43%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $1,574 +$953 +60%
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $764 −$66 -9%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $608 −$600 -99%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $509 −$500 -98%
Wales vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 09 $557 +$386 +69%
Norway vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 09 $507 +$426 +84%
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 07 $658 +$462 +70%
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) Jun 07 $611 −$600 -98%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 06 $251 −$247 -99%
Will Solana dip to $60 in June? Jun 05 $948 +$648 +68%
Set Handicap: Cobolli (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 05 $762 +$34 +4%
San Marino vs. Bangladesh: O/U 2.5 Jun 05 $764 +$1,309 +171%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 in June? Jun 05 $1,048 +$1,227 +117%
Mensik vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 05 $913 −$900 -99%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 04 $508 +$586 +115%
France vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $509 −$500 -98%
Spain vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Jun 04 $507 −$500 -99%
Kostyuk vs. Andreeva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 04 $507 −$500 -99%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Arnaldi (+1.5) Jun 03 $547 −$37 -7%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $1,009 +$438 +43%
Poland vs. Nigeria: Both Teams to Score Jun 03 $507 +$472 +93%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 2.5 Jun 03 $507 −$500 -99%
Felix Auger-Aliassime vs. Flavio Cobolli: Total Sets O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $647 −$635 -98%
Set Handicap: Fonseca (-1.5) vs Mensik (+1.5) Jun 02 $797 +$836 +105%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 02 $1,310 +$1,064 +81%
Roland Garros ATP: Frances Tiafoe vs Matteo Arnaldi Jun 02 $1,314 +$670 +51%
Norway vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 01 $507 +$401 +79%
Roland Garros ATP: Juan Manuel Cerundolo vs Matteo Berrettini Jun 01 $607 +$376 +62%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 01 $607 −$600 -99%
Set Handicap: Berrettini (-1.5) vs Cerundolo (+1.5) May 31 $506 −$500 -99%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $508 +$491 +97%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score May 30 $374 +$335 +89%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 9.5 Total Corners May 30 $1,016 +$1,080 +106%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $294 −$289 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 57% +$3,868
other 35% +$419
crypto 8% +$1,824
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,999 3h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $1,393 9h
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 38¢ $764 10h
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? BUY Yes 55¢ $760 10h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $2,527 10h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 61¢ $708 22h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 37¢ $698 22h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico O/U 1.5 BUY Over 62¢ $866 22h
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 54¢ $253 22h
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 49¢ $102 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $506 2d
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 37¢ $509 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $27 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $82 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $904 2d
Wales vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $942 2d
Wales vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $557 3d
Norway vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $507 3d
Will Netherlands reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 41¢ $763 4d
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $1,121 4d
Set Handicap: Zverev (-2.5) vs Cobolli (+2.5) BUY Zverev 38¢ $611 4d
Morocco vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $658 5d
Will Argentina reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 53¢ $761 5d
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 49¢ $761 5d
Will Brazil reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 50¢ $761 5d
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 59¢ $759 5d
Will Belgium reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 61¢ $759 5d
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $758 5d
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 68¢ $757 5d
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 39¢ $764 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-1.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +12.0% +1.3% 60% 53% +14.5%
≤30d 35 +8.5% -1.9% 57% 54% +11.7%
≤90d 35 +8.5% -1.9% 57% 54% +11.7%
all 35 +8.5% -1.9% 57% 54% +11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.9% 54% +11.7%
10% -11.3% 54% +1.0%
15% -19.8% 54% -8.8%
20% -27.7% 49% -17.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,520.28 · official $11,514.27 (match) · 93 history records