Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T05:57:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x502d…8b45 crypto 54 markets active 1h ago coverage 131d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$279 (-10%) realized −$276 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate96%49W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days+$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 53% $0
crypto 34% +$44
other 13% −$323
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 48 +2.4% -7.4% 100% 2% -5.4%
≤90d 48 +2.4% -7.4% 100% 2% -5.4%
all 51 +0.3% -9.3% 96% 2% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 2% -18.3%
10% -18.0% 2% -26.2%
15% -25.9% 2% -33.3%
20% -33.2% 2% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 96% · top 2 96% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$320 · ×0.0 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

131d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$276
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)96%
Wins / losses49 / 2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)51 / 54
History coverage131d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 16? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 16? No 100¢ 98¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $5 $3 −$3 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 13? Jun 13 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 1? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 30? Jun 01 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.55 on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 26? May 27 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 25? May 26 $11 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 25, 3AM ET May 26 $41 +$42 +104%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 23? May 25 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on May 23? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 22? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $100 and $110 on May 22? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 21? May 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 20? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 19? May 20 $10 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 16 to May 18, 2026? May 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on May 18? May 19 $30 $0 +0%
NYA (NYA) Up or Down on March 13? Mar 13 $320 −$320 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? Mar 13 $2 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 56m
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $30 1h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 24h
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 15? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 24h
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,500 and $1,600 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $10 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 3d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $30 4d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 5d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $10 8d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 8d
Will the price of XRP be less than $0.90 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 11d
Will the price of Solana be above $50 on June 5? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Solana be above $60 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 12d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $30 13d
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.10 and $1.20 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $11 15d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 1? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 15d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 17d
Will XRP reach $1.55 on May 29? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $42.35 · official $42.35 (match) · 105 history records