Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:46:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
50 0x502d…9761 other 95 markets active 1d ago coverage 481d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$79 (+1%) realized +$79 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate48%46W / 49L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% +$22
world 24% +$3
other 22% −$7
sports 3% +$12
tech 3% +$26
crypto 1% $0
economics 1% $0
weather 0% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +0.2% -9.4% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 12 +0.1% -9.4% 42% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 28 +1.7% -8.0% 39% 7% -8.9%
all 95 +8.8% -1.6% 48% 5% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -1.6% 5% -8.6%
10% -11.0% 3% -17.4%
15% -19.6% 2% -25.3%
20% -27.5% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 49% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +9% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$1 · ×3.35 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.43 per $1 lost it wins $6.43
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

481d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses46 / 49
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)95 / 95
History coverage481d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 95 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $91 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $499 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 13 $74 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $20 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $60 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $155 +$1 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 10 $169 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 10 $53 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 09 $170 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 09 $170 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $324 $0 +0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $114 $0 +0%
Will Denmark win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $38 +$2 +5%
Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W Apr 24 $59 +$11 +19%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $290 +$8 +3%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $148 +$28 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $5 $0 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 15? Apr 20 $143 +$5 +4%
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? Apr 18 $165 −$7 -4%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 13 $188 $0 +0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $1,019 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,141 $0 +0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $1,120 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 12 $41 $0 +0%
Will Stephen A. Smith win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $668 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will India invade Pakistan before July? Dec 10 $10 $0 -1%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? Jun 28 $10 $0 +1%
Will Oracle buy TikTok? Jun 23 $28 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $150-200b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in June? Jun 22 $27 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Judy Shelton as next Fed Chair? Jun 22 $28 $0 +0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? Jun 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Amazon buy TikTok? Jun 20 $3 −$2 -68%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Romania be Sorin Grindeanu? Jun 15 $27 +$1 +5%
Will Elon Musk create a new political party in June? Jun 14 $11 $0 -0%
Will Jennifer Geerlings-Simons be the next president of Suriname after Jun 14 $19 $0 +1%
Will SPD win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Jun 13 $14 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win The 2025 U.S. Open? Jun 12 $14 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom be the first leader out in 2025? Jun 11 $31 $0 -0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jun 11 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 70-71°F on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$18 +811%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" during Fort Bragg remarks on June Jun 11 $14 +$1 +4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July? Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Jun 09 $15 $0 +0%
Will Vitinha win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 09 $15 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $58 33h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $34 33h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 75¢ $91 34h
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $172 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $172 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 86¢ $74 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 86¢ $74 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $119 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $37 2d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $156 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $20 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $11 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $171 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $171 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $53 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 65¢ $7 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $60 4d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $156 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $76 5d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $79 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $170 5d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $169 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $9 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 66¢ $45 6d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 66¢ $53 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? SELL No 82¢ $170 6d
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 82¢ $170 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $170 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $170 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 256 history records