Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
50 0x502c…3327 sports 91 markets active 0h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$490 (-4%) realized −$490 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate64%58W / 33L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$128per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$53est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$33
14 days+$56
30 days+$97
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$498
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +6.9% -3.3% 64% 64% +5.6%
≤30d 25 +19.0% +7.7% 68% 60% +12.8%
≤90d 54 +5.2% -4.8% 61% 52% -13.0%
all 91 +1.0% -8.6% 64% 45% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 45% -13.4%
10% -17.4% 34% -21.7%
15% -25.4% 23% -29.3%
20% -32.7% 14% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$59 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$490
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses58 / 33
Est. fees paid−$53
Open positions0
Markets (closed)91 / 91
History coverage102d
Avg bet$128
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 91 Trades
no open positions (6 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Jun 28 $12 +$4 +29%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner Jun 28 $34 +$16 +47%
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner Jun 28 $33 −$33 -100%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage Jun 27 $25 +$16 +66%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 26 $8 −$4 -56%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $1 −$1 -97%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $16 +$19 +113%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $14 +$6 +48%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 Jun 21 $30 +$10 +32%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $17 +$3 +20%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 Jun 21 $10 −$2 -22%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 +$7 +54%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $16 +$4 +26%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $12 +$8 +72%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Cabo Verde O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $16 +$4 +28%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $13 +$1 +7%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$1 -35%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$4 +250%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $29 +$11 +38%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +73%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $55 +$4 +7%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 - Game 1 Winner Jun 12 $19 +$35 +180%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 13 $8 +$2 +30%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 09 $7 +$1 +9%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 05 $391 −$391 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 05 $113 +$41 +36%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner Apr 05 $23 +$5 +22%
LoL: SK Gaming vs Shifters - Game 2 Winner Apr 05 $150 −$112 -75%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Dplus KIA - Game 2 Winner Apr 04 $57 +$156 +273%
LoL: Team WE vs Ninjas in Pyjamas - Game 1 Winner Apr 04 $29 −$23 -80%
LoL: T1 vs Hanwha Life Esports - Game 2 Winner Apr 04 $92 +$13 +14%
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 2 Winner Apr 04 $25 −$22 -88%
LoL: Top Esports vs Invictus Gaming - Game 1 Winner Apr 04 $100 +$14 +14%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs HANJIN BRION - Game 1 Winner Apr 03 $373 +$23 +6%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Apr 03 $55 −$54 -99%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Apr 03 $58 +$57 +98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner Apr 03 $39 −$39 -100%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 Apr 02 $258 −$10 -4%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs DN SOOPers - Game 1 Winner Apr 02 $180 −$102 -57%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 2 Winner Apr 02 $87 +$12 +14%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE - Game 1 Winner Apr 02 $0 $0 -100%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 1 Winner Apr 02 $11 −$11 -100%
LoL: HANJIN BRION Challengers vs Nongshim Esports Academy - Game 1 Win Apr 02 $15 +$11 +76%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster - Game 2 Winner Apr 01 $95 +$25 +27%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO3) - LCK Challengers Leag Mar 31 $155 +$1 +1%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX Challengers vs T1 Academy - Game 2 Winner Mar 31 $100 −$80 -80%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Oh My God - Game 2 Winner Mar 31 $71 +$11 +15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming $3 16m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner SELL Deep Cross Gaming 35¢ $12 22m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 12¢ $12 29m
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner SELL Karmine Corp 100¢ $50 1h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 1 Winner BUY Karmine Corp 68¢ $34 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 66¢ $13 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 66¢ $10 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 66¢ $2 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 66¢ $6 3h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winner BUY Team Liquid 66¢ $2 3h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Cloud9 60¢ $17 19h
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Cloud9 (BO1) - Cross Regional Group Stage BUY Cloud9 60¢ $7 20h
Spread: France (-3.5) SELL France $3 35h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 19¢ $0 35h
Spread: France (-3.5) BUY France 19¢ $7 35h
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 4d
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 47¢ $16 5d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Saudi Arabia O/U 0.5 BUY Under 83¢ $17 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 SELL Under 41¢ $8 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 75¢ $30 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 51¢ $10 6d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY No 67¢ $14 6d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 11d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes $5 11d
France vs. Senegal: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 11d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 65¢ $13 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 58¢ $12 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 SELL Under 71¢ $14 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $11 12d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Under 66¢ $2 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 346 history records