Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:30:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x502c…728f sports 44 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$267 (-14%) realized −$210 · open −$57
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate53%23W / 20L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 69% −$168
other 31% −$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-6.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 43 +3.1% -6.7% 53% 49% -23.4%
≤30d 43 +3.1% -6.7% 53% 49% -23.4%
≤90d 43 +3.1% -6.7% 53% 49% -23.4%
all 43 +3.1% -6.7% 53% 49% -23.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.7% 49% -23.4%
10% -15.6% 44% -30.7%
15% -23.8% 40% -37.4%
20% -31.3% 37% -43.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late -40% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$36 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$210
Unrealized−$57
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses23 / 20
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)43 / 44
History coverage7d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 43 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $96 $39 −$57 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $21 +$33 +160%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $52 −$50 -97%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $51 +$39 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $51 +$12 +23%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$10 +97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $74 −$74 -100%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $133 −$133 -100%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $39 −$39 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $51 −$51 -100%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 13.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $48 −$48 -100%
Switzerland to win the second half? Jun 16 $65 −$65 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 1 - 0 Switzerland? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $48 +$19 +39%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$18 +172%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $51 +$28 +55%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 −$30 -96%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $31 −$22 -72%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $20 +$12 +57%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $250 +$8 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $21 +$22 +109%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 +$15 +74%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $160 +$15 +10%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $20 −$3 -14%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 −$8 -25%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $68 +$36 +52%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $21 +$45 +220%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $15 −$8 -54%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $21 −$17 -80%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $21 +$3 +14%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $10 +$11 +108%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $30 +$18 +60%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $31 +$35 +112%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 13 $24 +$6 +26%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $31 +$34 +107%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$20 +191%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $19 +$3 +15%
Mexico leading at halftime? Jun 12 $10 +$10 +99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $53 24m
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 25¢ $52 58m
Austria vs. Jordan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $21 1h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $90 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $63 9h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Over 62¢ $41 10h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 79¢ $51 11h
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $51 11h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $20 27h
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 27h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 58¢ $31 30h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $67 30h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $28 30h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 35¢ $10 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $79 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 70¢ $48 31h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: 1st Half O/U 3.5 Total Corners BUY Over 63¢ $51 33h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners SELL Under 2¢ $1 36h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 15¢ $9 36h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 71¢ $64 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 54¢ $31 37h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 49¢ $31 38h
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $102 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $31 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $32 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 96¢ $250 2d
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 99¢ $43 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.80 · official $38.80 (match) · 86 history records