Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T17:37:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
50 0x502c…5ac1 sports 18 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,978 (+38%) realized +$1,880 · open +$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +74% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip
Net edge+34%after slip
Net WR91%break-even
Win rate91%10W / 1L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$290per market
Trades / day23.6pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,868now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$1,347
crypto 16% +$557
other 8% +$208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +91%
net ROI/market (all)+57.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +73.8% +57.2% 91% 91% +46.8%
≤30d 11 +73.8% +57.2% 91% 91% +46.8%
≤90d 11 +73.8% +57.2% 91% 91% +46.8%
all 11 +73.8% +57.2% 91% 91% +46.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +57.2% 91% +46.8%
10% ← realistic here +42.2% 91% +32.8%
15% +28.4% 91% +20.0%
20% +15.8% 64% +8.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 41% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +62% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +74% · $-wt +62% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$230 vs −$290 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.94 per $1 lost it wins $7.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,868
Realized+$1,880
Unrealized+$98
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses10 / 1
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions5
Markets (closed)11 / 18
History coverage2d
Avg bet$290
Trades / day23.6
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) IR Iran 57¢ 55¢ $570 $545 −$25 (-4%)
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Over 47¢ 46¢ $423 $418 −$4 (-1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Over 42¢ 42¢ $336 $332 −$4 (-1%)
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Spain 55¢ 100¢ $165 $298 +$134 (+81%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Over 69¢ 68¢ $276 $274 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $408 +$192 +47%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Jun 21 $282 +$418 +148%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 21 $438 +$262 +60%
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) Jun 21 $147 +$219 +149%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $34 +$16 +48%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $51 +$72 +142%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $259 +$113 +44%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $407 −$290 -71%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $764 +$484 +64%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 20 $67 +$77 +114%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $484 +$450 +93%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 AND BUY 18¢ $51 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 11¢ $26 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 69¢ $279 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $430 1h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 42¢ $342 1h
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $577 1h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 55¢ $167 1h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $42 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $70 15h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 41¢ $42 15h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) SELL Curaçao 83¢ $166 16h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 36¢ $37 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 61¢ $62 19h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 39¢ $199 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $338 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 36¢ $37 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 62¢ $63 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 62¢ $314 19h
Spread: Ecuador (-1.5) BUY Curaçao 36¢ $73 19h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 44¢ $110 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 72¢ $57 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 72¢ $15 20h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $259 21h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 40¢ $407 21h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 92¢ $598 23h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 72¢ $140 23h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) SELL Netherlands 72¢ $4 23h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $34 24h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 33¢ $34 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $176 24h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,868.00 · official $1,943.00 · 49 history records