Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:58:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
50 0x502b…a26b crypto 297 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$437 (-1%) realized −$437 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate78%231W / 66L
Whale WR80%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$148per market
Trades / day11.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$567
7 days−$558
14 days−$531
30 days−$539
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$846
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -30.3% -37.0% 55% 27% -41.3%
≤30d 137 -3.6% -12.7% 79% 35% -11.2%
≤90d 297 -4.1% -13.3% 78% 32% -11.3%
all 297 -4.1% -13.3% 78% 32% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.3% 32% -11.3%
10% -21.6% 18% -19.8%
15% -29.1% 11% -27.5%
20% -36.1% 8% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
57% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 80% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -6% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$15 vs −$66 · ×0.23 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$437
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses231 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)80%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)297 / 297
History coverage50d
Avg bet$148
Trades / day11.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 297 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $96 +$44 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 17 $84 +$12 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 17 $77 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 17 $68 +$9 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 17 $64 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 17 $61 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $65 −$4 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $59 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $45 −$44 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $37 +$8 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 17 $32 +$4 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 17 $48 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $139 −$32 -23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 17 $68 −$68 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $101 −$101 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 17 $136 −$136 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $228 −$228 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $64 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 14 $60 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 05 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 05 $8 +$7 +81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 05 $4 +$4 +91%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$2 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 05 $225 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 05 $199 +$23 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 05 $196 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 02 $109 −$109 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 02 $85 +$23 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 02 $66 +$18 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 02 $85 +$13 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 02 $78 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 02 $68 +$11 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 01 $100 −$1 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 01 $121 +$12 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 01 $118 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 01 $99 +$21 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 01 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 31 $229 +$15 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET May 31 $186 +$45 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 31 $142 +$43 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET May 31 $117 +$25 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 31 $100 +$17 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 30 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET May 29 $244 −$244 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 29 $3 +$3 +95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 29 $193 +$53 +27%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $140 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $96 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $96 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $84 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $84 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $77 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $77 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $68 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $67 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $64 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $64 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $61 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $5 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET SELL Down 89¢ $56 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $65 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $59 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $37 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 88¢ $32 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $53 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $68 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $68 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $64 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $65 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 664 history records