Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T02:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x502b…500c crypto 13 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$250 (+20%) realized +$250 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -40% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip
Net edge-54%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate23%3W / 10L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$97per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$262
other 3% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-45.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -40.1% -45.8% 23% 23% +18.3%
≤30d 13 -40.1% -45.8% 23% 23% +18.3%
≤90d 13 -40.1% -45.8% 23% 23% +18.3%
all 13 -40.1% -45.8% 23% 23% +18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -45.8% 23% +18.3%
10% ← realistic here -51.0% 23% +6.9%
15% -55.7% 23% -3.4%
20% -60.1% 23% -12.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -40% · $-wt +31% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late -82% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$177 vs −$28 · ×6.32 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.9 per $1 lost it wins $1.9
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$250
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)23%
Wins / losses3 / 10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)13 / 13
History coverage1d
Avg bet$97
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 13 Trades
no open positions (9 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Jun 27 $88 −$54 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 27 $55 −$10 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 27 $216 −$49 -23%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $40 −$11 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 27 $154 −$10 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 27 $143 +$187 +131%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 27 $115 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 27 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 27 $143 +$155 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $164 +$188 +115%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $16 −$15 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $56 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $57 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $31 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Up 21¢ $5 53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $42 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET BUY Down 36¢ $44 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $110 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $154 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $106 1h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-26? SELL 18¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 8¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $250 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET SELL Down 45¢ $101 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 13¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 73¢ $298 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 33¢ $143 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $135 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET SELL Up 87¢ $16 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 42 history records