Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:59:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5028…5e91 other 39 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate24%9W / 29L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit56%portable
Net worth$28now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% $0
other 33% $0
politics 14% $0
tech 6% +$1
sports 4% −$1
weather 2% +$1
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.4% -11.7% 25% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 7 -1.2% -10.6% 29% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 7 -1.2% -10.6% 29% 0% -9.7%
all 38 -0.0% -9.5% 24% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.3% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×2.39 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$28
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses9 / 29
Open positions1
Markets (closed)38 / 39
History coverage470d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit56%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 38 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $28 $28 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $27 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $12 −$1 -11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $28 $0 +1%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $28 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $54 +$1 +1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 08 $31 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Jul 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Jul 07 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $13 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Jul 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Iran enrich uranium to 90% before August? Jul 06 $13 $0 +0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2025 World Series? Jul 06 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lamine Yamal win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jul 04 $14 $0 -0%
Will 'The Fantastic Four: First Steps' have the best domestic opening Jul 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the number of federal employees decrease by 100,000-200,000 betwe Jul 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Jul 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Jul 02 $14 $0 -0%
Will Palmeiras win the FIFA Club World Cup? Jul 02 $14 $0 -1%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2025 National League Championship? Jul 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 240–254 times June 27–July 4? Jul 02 $14 +$1 +4%
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times June 27–July 4? Jul 01 $14 $0 -2%
Will Trump meet with Yoon Suk Yeol in 2025? Jul 01 $27 $0 -0%
Will Chan Santokhi be the next president of Suriname after the electio Jul 01 $14 $0 -1%
Will Perplexity AI buy TikTok? Jun 26 $14 +$1 +5%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the Eastern Conference? May 15 $16 $0 -2%
Will Putin meet with Trump in first 100 days? Apr 12 $29 $0 -0%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 01 $14 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the Western Conference? Mar 29 $14 $0 +1%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 25 $14 $0 -0%
Will Elon tweet 650 or more times March 21-28? Mar 24 $14 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 21 $15 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 53-54°F on March 4? Mar 05 $14 +$1 +9%
Nebraska vs. Ohio State Mar 04 $15 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $28 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $20 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $7 4h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $18 6h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $9 6h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $24 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $4 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $28 3d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $28 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $3 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 4d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL No 60¢ $9 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $9 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $6 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 43¢ $22 7d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $28 7d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $23 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $5 8d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $28 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $17 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $7 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 8d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 73¢ $31 9d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 73¢ $31 9d
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $13 345d
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 345d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $27.70 · official $27.70 (match) · 104 history records