Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:28:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5028…91c5 other 180 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (435 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$7,737 (+15%) realized +$8,339 · open −$602
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR21%break-even
Win rate44%72W / 91L
Whale WR59%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$287per market
Trades / day435.4pace
Fees−$380est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$2,528now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% +$149
sports 32% −$830
weather 10% −$490
politics 2% +$7
world 1% +$2
crypto 0% +$75
culture 0% −$45
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (435 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +21%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 -18.3% -26.1% 45% 21% -10.4%
≤30d 163 -17.6% -25.5% 44% 21% -10.5%
≤90d 163 -17.6% -25.5% 44% 21% -10.5%
all 163 -17.6% -25.5% 44% 21% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover435.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -25.5% 21% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -32.6% 13% -19.1%
15% -39.1% 9% -26.9%
20% -45.1% 6% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 59% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
10.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$65 vs −$57 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$2,528
Realized+$8,339
Unrealized−$602
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses72 / 91
Whale WR (big bets)59%
Est. fees paid−$380
Open positions85
Markets (closed)163 / 180
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$287
Trades / day435.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 85 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will T1 win MSI 2026? No 71¢ 74¢ $250 $259 +$9 (+4%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 76¢ 84¢ $232 $257 +$25 (+11%)
Will the Democratic Party win the KY-06 House seat? Yes 26¢ 35¢ $184 $248 +$64 (+35%)
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 93¢ 95¢ $181 $185 +$5 (+3%)
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? No 89¢ 89¢ $179 $178 −$1 (-1%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $160 $165 +$4 (+3%)
KBO: KT Wiz vs. Samsung Lions Samsung Lions 54¢ 38¢ $210 $146 −$63 (-30%)
Will Abdul El-Sayed win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary? No 45¢ 28¢ $199 $127 −$72 (-36%)
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Doosan Bears Doosan Bears 53¢ 57¢ $90 $97 +$8 (+8%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 91¢ 91¢ $96 $96 +$0 (+0%)
U.S. issues passport with Trump's face on it by July 31? Yes 67¢ 80¢ $74 $88 +$14 (+19%)
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? Yes 32¢ 26¢ $95 $76 −$18 (-19%)
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31? No 85¢ 92¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+8%)
Will Hanwha Life Esports win MSI 2026? Yes 31¢ 34¢ $55 $60 +$4 (+8%)
Will Waymo launch in Nashville by June 30 2026? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $48 $46 −$2 (-5%)
Will Tim Walz resign by December 31, 2026? No 90¢ 92¢ $40 $41 +$1 (+2%)
Will Alberta join the US? No 96¢ 97¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+1%)
Will North Carolina use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 6¢ 4¢ $53 $31 −$22 (-41%)
Clavicular sentenced to prison? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $24 $26 +$2 (+10%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? Yes 7¢ 9¢ $18 $23 +$5 (+28%)
Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 22¢ 14¢ $33 $20 −$12 (-38%)
Will two SpaceX Starships dock together by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 74¢ $15 $18 +$3 (+20%)
Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 39¢ 6¢ $118 $18 −$100 (-85%)
Will Wisconsin use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 25¢ 6¢ $71 $18 −$53 (-75%)
Will Russia capture Rai-Oleksandrivka by June 30? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+11%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $2,075 +$233 +11%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $339 +$4 +1%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $416 +$1 +0%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $217 −$5 -2%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $1,173 −$17 -2%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $664 +$8 +1%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? Jun 21 $811 +$3 +0%
Exact Score: Tunisia 0 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $516 +$8 +2%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $261 −$10 -4%
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $158 +$3 +2%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 21 $37 +$1 +3%
Exact Score: Tunisia 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 21 $322 +$8 +2%
Exact Score: Tunisia 3 - 2 Japan? Jun 21 $128 +$4 +3%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $890 −$188 -21%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Dodgers Jun 21 $655 −$302 -46%
San Francisco Giants vs. Miami Marlins Jun 20 $506 −$234 -46%
Cincinnati Reds vs. New York Yankees Jun 20 $245 −$245 -100%
Netherlands leading at halftime? Jun 20 $135 +$72 +53%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $507 +$105 +21%
Viktor Gyökeres: 1+ goals Jun 20 $598 −$92 -15%
Alexander Isak: 1+ goals Jun 20 $241 +$89 +37%
Sweden leading at halftime? Jun 20 $249 +$51 +20%
Cody Gakpo: 1+ goals Jun 20 $471 −$87 -18%
Crysencio Summerville: 1+ goals Jun 20 $248 −$243 -98%
Counter-Strike: MASQ vs LPH Gaming (BO3) - United21 Group B Jun 20 $402 −$110 -27%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. Hanwha Eagles Jun 20 $512 +$63 +12%
KBO: Lotte Giants vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 20 $224 −$97 -43%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 20 $1,300 +$388 +30%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $659 +$100 +15%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $432 +$12 +3%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $349 +$9 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $508 +$12 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $1,078 −$136 -13%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $1,237 +$41 +3%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $381 $0 +0%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $1,395 −$5 -0%
Exact Score: Brazil 0 - 1 Haiti? Jun 20 $60 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Haiti? Jun 20 $339 +$4 +1%
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu Jun 20 $47 −$34 -73%
Will "you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love" - Olivia Rodrigo debu Jun 20 $20 −$10 -50%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $1,059 +$79 +7%
United States vs. Australia: Draw at halftime? Jun 19 $100 −$24 -24%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 19 $249 +$32 +13%
Map Handicap: K27 (-1.5) vs SHISHKA (+1.5) Jun 19 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 19 $361 −$20 -6%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 19? Jun 19 $122 −$82 -67%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 19? Jun 19 $15 −$6 -40%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $115 −$106 -92%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Oxuji Esports (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode Jun 19 $1,369 −$79 -6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $31 9m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $20 11m
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 19m
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $68 23m
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $28 25m
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 95¢ $19 30m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 19¢ $2 45m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 19¢ $44 45m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 62¢ $9 45m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 11¢ $3 45m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 68¢ $10 45m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 62¢ $41 47m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 47m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 54¢ $11 47m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 66¢ $18 47m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 62¢ $22 48m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 62¢ $9 48m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 60¢ $212 48m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 60¢ $25 48m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 45¢ $3 49m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 48¢ $72 49m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 62¢ $16 53m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 41¢ $4 53m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 53m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? SELL Yes 15¢ $11 53m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $14 54m
Exact Score: Tunisia 1 - 3 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $13 54m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 60¢ $12 54m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 60¢ $3 54m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 40¢ $20 54m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,528.25 · official $2,522.73 (match) · 3500 history records