Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T13:28:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5028…3ad7 sports 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$137 (-4%) realized −$108 · open −$29
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate47%15W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$90per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$48est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$540now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$243
7 days+$476
14 days−$140
30 days−$140
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$169
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +84.7% +67.1% 67% 67% +47.8%
≤30d 32 +12.3% +1.6% 47% 47% -14.3%
≤90d 32 +12.3% +1.6% 47% 47% -14.3%
all 32 +12.3% +1.6% 47% 47% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 47% -14.3%
10% -8.1% 47% -22.5%
15% -17.0% 47% -30.0%
20% -25.1% 47% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$88 vs −$86 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.9 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$540
Realized−$108
Unrealized−$29
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses15 / 17
Est. fees paid−$48
Open positions4
Markets (closed)32 / 36
History coverage14d
Avg bet$90
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Jack Draper Taylor Fritz 56¢ 56¢ $247 $245 −$2 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Tomas Etcheverry Tomas Etcheverry 55¢ 46¢ $148 $123 −$26 (-17%)
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse Ignacio Buse 59¢ 58¢ $99 $98 −$1 (-1%)
Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier Daniel Altmaier 52¢ 52¢ $74 $74 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert Jun 26 $76 +$125 +165%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel Jun 26 $71 +$194 +271%
Draper vs. Humbert: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 26 $77 −$76 -99%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 23 $99 −$14 -14%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing Jun 22 $75 +$86 +114%
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 22 $129 −$129 -100%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane Jun 22 $100 +$90 +90%
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul Jun 21 $50 +$100 +203%
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz Jun 20 $74 +$98 +133%
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime Jun 19 $74 +$126 +170%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala Jun 19 $99 −$99 -100%
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 19 $98 −$96 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Taylor Fritz Jun 19 $200 −$198 -99%
Grass Court Championships: Madison Keys vs Karolina Muchova Jun 18 $60 +$56 +93%
Parma: Daniel Rincon vs Buvaysar Gadamauri Jun 18 $100 −$99 -99%
Nottingham 2: Billy Harris vs Otto Virtanen Jun 18 $35 −$35 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Donna Vekic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 17 $50 +$55 +109%
Poznan: Martin Krumich vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 17 $100 +$76 +76%
HSBC Championships: Ugo Humbert vs Marin Cilic Jun 16 $100 +$98 +97%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $101 −$99 -98%
Parma: Jesper de Jong vs Laslo Djere Jun 16 $68 +$66 +97%
Halle Open: Andrey Rublev vs Hubert Hurkacz Jun 16 $87 +$85 +97%
Halle Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Sho Shimabukuro Jun 16 $100 −$99 -99%
Nottingham 2: Yunchaokete Bu vs Otto Virtanen Jun 16 $65 −$3 -5%
HSBC Championships: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Corentin Moutet Jun 15 $99 −$99 -100%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Tereza Valentova Jun 15 $60 +$56 +93%
Schoenhaus vs. Tien: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Halle Open, Qualification: Mattia Bellucci vs Alex Bolt Jun 14 $50 −$49 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Aleksandar Vukic vs Harry Wendelken Jun 14 $150 −$148 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Rinky Hijikata vs Marcos Giron Jun 14 $76 −$75 -99%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Martin Damm Jun 14 $60 −$59 -99%
Halle Open: Flavio Cobolli vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 13 $80 −$79 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon ATP: Alex Molcan vs Daniel Altmaier BUY Daniel Altmaier 52¢ $75 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Taylor Fritz vs Jack Draper BUY Taylor Fritz 56¢ $251 1h
Wimbledon ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tomas Etcheverry 55¢ $124 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tomas Etcheverry 55¢ $24 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Lorenzo Sonego vs Tomas Etcheverry BUY Tomas Etcheverry 55¢ $1 3h
Wimbledon ATP: Emilio Nava vs Ignacio Buse BUY Ignacio Buse 59¢ $99 5h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 26¢ $12 22h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 27¢ $1 22h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 27¢ $42 22h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 27¢ $1 22h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Toby Samuel BUY Zizou Bergs 27¢ $15 22h
Draper vs. Humbert: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 47¢ $16 23h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 37¢ $76 23h
Draper vs. Humbert: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 48¢ $58 23h
Draper vs. Humbert: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 23h
Draper vs. Humbert: Match O/U 23.5 BUY Over 47¢ $1 23h
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 53¢ $50 4d
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Francesco Maestrelli vs Max Basing BUY Max Basing 46¢ $75 4d
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 58¢ $65 4d
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 58¢ $13 4d
Mallorca Championships: Adam Walton vs Nick Kyrgios BUY Nick Kyrgios 58¢ $1 4d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Terence Atmane BUY Gabriel Diallo 52¢ $100 5d
HSBC Championships: Francisco Cerundolo vs Tommy Paul BUY Francisco Cerundolo 33¢ $50 6d
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Jacob Fearnley BUY Jacob Fearnley 58¢ $99 6d
Halle Open: Alexander Zverev vs Taylor Fritz BUY Taylor Fritz 43¢ $74 7d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 37¢ $72 7d
Halle Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Felix Auger-Aliassime BUY Frances Tiafoe 37¢ $2 7d
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Alexandra Eala BUY Elina Svitolina 67¢ $99 7d
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Kilian Feldbausch 31¢ $47 8d
Royan: Kilian Feldbausch vs Max Alcala Gurri BUY Kilian Feldbausch 33¢ $31 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $539.83 · official $539.83 (match) · 88 history records