Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T17:35:29+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
50 0x5026…dde1 other 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 226d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$12,262 (+45%) realized +$13,224 · open −$962
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +11% what you keep after slip
Net edge+11%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate52%26W / 24L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$342per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$26est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$6,756now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days+$276
14 days+$4
30 days+$188
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$11,052
world 13% +$257
sports 10% +$330
tech 4% +$134
politics 2% +$191
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)+10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +17.9% +6.7% 46% 46% -3.4%
≤30d 26 -9.7% -18.3% 42% 42% -7.0%
≤90d 50 +22.3% +10.7% 52% 40% +55.0%
all 50 +22.3% +10.7% 52% 40% +55.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.7% 40% +55.0%
10% +0.1% 28% +40.1%
15% -9.6% 24% +26.6%
20% -18.5% 18% +14.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 82% · top 2 87% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +71% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt +71% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +57% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$564 vs −$72 · ×7.81 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.46 per $1 lost it wins $8.46
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

226d coverage
Net worth$6,756
Realized+$13,224
Unrealized−$962
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses26 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$26
Open positions30
Markets (closed)50 / 80
History coverage226d
Avg bet$342
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 30 History 50 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 20¢ $818 $954 +$136 (+17%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $750 $864 +$114 (+15%)
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $500 $497 −$3 (-1%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $500 $450 −$50 (-10%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $836 $445 −$391 (-47%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $414 $343 −$71 (-17%)
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 48¢ 53¢ $300 $333 +$33 (+11%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $250 $305 +$55 (+22%)
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $294 $287 −$7 (-2%)
Will South Korea reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 73¢ 62¢ $300 $257 −$43 (-14%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $300 $210 −$90 (-30%)
Will Marquinhos score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 76¢ 78¢ $200 $204 +$4 (+2%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $125 $188 +$63 (+50%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 38¢ $150 $170 +$20 (+14%)
Will Ecuador reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 43¢ 36¢ $200 $165 −$35 (-17%)
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 36¢ $150 $163 +$13 (+9%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 31¢ 42¢ $100 $137 +$37 (+37%)
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 55¢ 56¢ $100 $103 +$3 (+3%)
Will Brazil reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 34¢ 30¢ $98 $85 −$13 (-13%)
Will Norway reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 48¢ 40¢ $100 $83 −$17 (-17%)
Will Portugal reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 53¢ 41¢ $100 $78 −$22 (-22%)
Will Vitinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 45¢ 34¢ $99 $76 −$23 (-23%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 68¢ $500 $59 −$441 (-88%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $75 $55 −$20 (-26%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $703 −$15 -2%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? Jun 19 $1,000 −$15 -2%
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $101 −$45 -44%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $103 −$21 -21%
Will João Neves score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $102 +$103 +101%
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $202 −$6 -3%
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 15 $202 −$7 -4%
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $566 +$76 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $100 +$79 +79%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $51 +$22 +43%
Will Scotland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cu Jun 14 $507 −$74 -15%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $202 +$115 +57%
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? Jun 13 $222 +$64 +29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3T? Jun 12 $1,006 +$134 +13%
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 12 $128 −$26 -20%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 10 $200 +$34 +17%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $200 +$41 +21%
Will Haiti reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Turkiye advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 10 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Haiti advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $41 −$40 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Rafael Jodar vs Alexander Zverev Jun 03 $302 +$114 +38%
Will Ousmane Dembélé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Jun 02 $112 −$19 -16%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 27 $304 +$188 +62%
Spread: Lille OSC (-2.5) May 19 $302 +$83 +27%
Olympique de Marseille vs. Stade Rennais FC 1901: O/U 5.5 May 19 $502 +$86 +17%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-17? May 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 09 $53 +$736 +1388%
Will MegaETH launch a token by September 30, 2026? May 01 $1,740 +$78 +4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 25 $1,000 +$18 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? Apr 16 $330 +$28 +8%
Will Sporting CP reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Real Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League semifinal? Apr 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Harry Kane: Anytime Goalscorer Apr 15 $200 −$197 -98%
Jets vs. Utah Apr 15 $100 +$52 +52%
Capitals vs. Blue Jackets Apr 15 $100 +$138 +138%
Canadiens vs. Flyers Apr 14 $250 −$250 -100%
Miami Marlins vs. Atlanta Braves Apr 14 $150 +$185 +124%
Cleveland Guardians vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 8.5 Apr 14 $200 −$200 -100%
MegaETH FDV above $500M one day after launch? Apr 13 $51 $0 -1%
MegaETH FDV above $600M one day after launch? Apr 13 $1 $0 +4%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? Apr 13 $5,068 +$12,079 +238%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $500 +$191 +38%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 11 $100 −$100 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 10? Apr 08 $100 +$8 +8%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 08 $200 +$4 +2%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 30? Apr 08 $14 +$3 +21%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 07 $105 −$2 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $515 1h
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $49 1h
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 29¢ $85 1h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 66¢ $290 1h
Will Morocco reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 27h
Will Ecuador advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 80¢ $503 27h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 68¢ $202 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL No 83¢ $688 27h
Will Tunisia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes $103 27h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 84¢ $703 29h
Will Vitinha score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 41¢ $1 40h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 71¢ $495 41h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? SELL Yes 70¢ $490 41h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31? BUY Yes 72¢ $1,000 41h
Will Senegal advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 68¢ $202 2d
Will Marcus Thuram score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 55¢ $101 2d
Will Ghana advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 30¢ $56 2d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $294 2d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $82 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $64 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 3d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 3d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 70¢ $37 4d
Will Egypt advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 72¢ $158 4d
Will Algeria advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup SELL Yes 65¢ $195 4d
Will USA advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 97¢ $642 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $68 5d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $168 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 84¢ $179 5d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $303 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,756.39 · official $6,756.53 (match) · 378 history records