Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T12:27:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5024…a196 other 130 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$43 (-0%) realized −$43 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate13%17W / 112L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$164per market
Trades / day4.8pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$18
14 days−$25
30 days−$34
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 31% −$21
politics 25% −$11
sports 16% −$12
crypto 10% −$7
economics 5% $0
culture 5% −$1
world 5% −$3
finance 2% $0
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -0.8% -10.2% 0% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 62 -0.6% -10.1% 6% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 106 -0.5% -9.9% 10% 0% -9.8%
all 129 -0.4% -9.9% 13% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.15 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$43
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)13%
Wins / losses17 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)129 / 130
History coverage107d
Avg bet$164
Trades / day4.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 129 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 92¢ 92¢ $48 $48 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 18 $451 −$1 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 18 $173 −$1 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $54 $0 -0%
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 17 $49 $0 -1%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $64 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $153 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $46 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 16 $58 −$1 -1%
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 15 $59 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 15 $270 −$4 -2%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 15 $120 −$1 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 14 $322 −$1 -0%
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 14 $152 −$3 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 14 $46 −$1 -2%
Will Abbas Araghchi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 13 $47 $0 -0%
Will Falcons win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 13 $57 −$1 -1%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $381 −$1 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $68 $0 -0%
Will South Korea reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $19 $0 -2%
Will there be no Head of State in Iran end of 2026? Jun 12 $70 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $54 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $451 −$1 -0%
Will Ivory Coast reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $52 −$1 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.8T? Jun 10 $47 −$1 -3%
Will a player representing Belgium be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 10 $43 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $47 $0 -1%
Will Brazil advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $47 $0 -1%
Will Boston Celtics win the 2027 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $42 −$1 -3%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $399 −$1 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $15 $0 +1%
Will Switzerland advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Jun 06 $54 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $50 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in June? Jun 05 $41 $0 -0%
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $34 $0 -1%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 04 $55 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $51 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $43 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $335 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $59 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $40 $0 -0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $109 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $87 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 01 $46 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $99 $0 -0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $101 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 30 $110 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 29 $115 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $115 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? BUY No 92¢ $48 1h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $51 2h
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $52 6h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 98¢ $58 6h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 98¢ $58 12h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $54 13h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $54 21h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 93¢ $48 22h
Will Mexico reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 93¢ $49 29h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $63 29h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $64 37h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $45 38h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 96¢ $45 43h
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 94¢ $46 44h
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 94¢ $46 2d
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL No 96¢ $58 2d
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $7 2d
Will Uruguay reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY No 97¢ $51 2d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $58 2d
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $59 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $41 2d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $14 3d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 91¢ $54 3d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $55 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $63 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $63 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $51 3d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 97¢ $51 3d
Will The Super Mario Galaxy Movie be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $54 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.62 · official $47.62 (match) · 545 history records