Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T07:44:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5023…aeb4 world 75 markets active 1h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$68 (-1%) realized −$68 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate35%26W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$84per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$3
14 days−$16
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% −$12
other 27% −$49
sports 24% $0
politics 13% +$3
culture 4% −$4
finance 2% −$5
economics 1% −$1
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.7% -10.1% 14% 0% -10.2%
≤30d 29 +3.0% -6.8% 34% 3% -10.4%
≤90d 37 +2.3% -7.4% 35% 3% -9.8%
all 75 +2.8% -7.0% 35% 3% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 3% -10.5%
10% -15.9% 3% -19.1%
15% -24.0% 3% -26.9%
20% -31.4% 3% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +4% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.16 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$68
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses26 / 49
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage302d
Avg bet$84
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $66 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? Jun 17 $68 $0 -0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $71 −$3 -4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $94 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 14 $78 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $71 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $28 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 10 $20 −$3 -17%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $74 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $74 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $53 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 08 $65 −$5 -8%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 08 $78 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $199 −$3 -2%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $2 $0 -17%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $79 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $60 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 04 $87 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $79 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 30 $80 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $80 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $239 −$3 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 28 $4 $0 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $113 −$5 -4%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $85 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 24 $89 +$2 +2%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 23 $87 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 21 $86 +$1 +1%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $185 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 24 $47 −$1 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $628 +$1 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $570 +$1 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $571 −$1 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 22 $416 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $626 +$2 +0%
Will Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 16 $64 −$4 -6%
Jamal Murray: Rebounds O/U 4.5 Mar 14 $316 $0 -0%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Mar 11 $144 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 3 to March 10, 2026? Mar 11 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 25 $6 $0 +2%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $29 +$1 +2%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $1 +$5 +335%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $11 $0 +3%
Will the Detroit Lions win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 26 $2 $0 -5%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 25 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $66 1h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $66 2h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $28 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? SELL No 63¢ $40 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $17 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 63¢ $51 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $21 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 74¢ $46 2d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $71 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $70 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $70 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $78 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $78 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $23 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $23 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 47¢ $71 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 47¢ $71 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 35¢ $28 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $28 5d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 10¢ $16 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $8 7d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 55¢ $74 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $45 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 55¢ $29 7d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 76¢ $74 8d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 76¢ $74 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 32¢ $3 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 32¢ $48 8d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 32¢ $3 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 249 history records