trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 5 | +1.7% | -7.9% | 60% | 0% | -8.0% |
| ≤90d | 5 | +1.7% | -7.9% | 60% | 0% | -8.0% |
| all | 24 | +0.5% | -9.0% | 50% | 0% | -8.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -9.0% | 0% | -8.5% |
| 10% | -17.7% | 0% | -17.2% |
| 15% | -25.7% | 0% | -25.2% |
| 20% | -33.0% | 0% | -32.6% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? | No | 64¢ | 62¢ | $48 | $47 | −$1 (-2%) |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? | No | 97¢ | 99¢ | $0 | $0 | +$0 (+2%) |
| Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | Yes | 58¢ | 56¢ | $0 | $0 | −$0 (-3%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alberta join the US? | Jun 02 | $48 | $0 | -0% |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | Jun 01 | $21 | +$1 | +5% |
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? | May 27 | $46 | +$1 | +1% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 26 | $50 | +$1 | +2% |
| Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab | May 25 | $1 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? | Dec 17 | $2 | $0 | -9% |
| Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Jun 26 | $12 | −$1 | -8% |
| Will the New England Patriots win Super Bowl 2026? | May 21 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | May 19 | $11 | +$1 | +10% |
| Will Pedro Nuno Santos be the next Prime Minister of Portugal after th | May 11 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? | May 11 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 325–349 times May 9–16? | May 10 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? | May 10 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Italy win Eurovision 2025? | May 10 | $11 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? | May 09 | $19 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon and DOGE cut more than $250b in federal spending in 2025? | May 08 | $2 | $0 | +6% |
| Will Trump impose film tariff by Friday? | May 08 | $6 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? | May 08 | $1 | $0 | -6% |
| Will Robert Sarah be the next pope? | May 07 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Liverpool wins the Premier League? | Apr 28 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will Trump's approval rating be between 46.0% and 46.4% on March 28? | Mar 23 | $13 | $0 | -1% |
| Will Elon tweet 575-599 times March 14-21? | Mar 22 | $12 | $0 | +3% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $87000 and $89000 on Mar 14? | Mar 15 | $11 | +$1 | +8% |
| Will the Detroit Pistons win the Eastern Conference? | Mar 12 | $11 | $0 | +0% |