Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T10:40:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0

score

50 0x5020…26cb crypto 16 markets active 0h ago coverage 23d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample

✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$51 (+11%) realized +$51 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +5% what you keep after slip

Net edge+5%after slip

Net WR44%break-even

Win rate50%8W / 8L

Drawdown41%max

Avg bet$29per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Fees−$1est.

Kalshi-fit100%portable

Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 23d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +44%

net ROI/market (all)+5.0%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	15	+6.2%	-3.9%	47%	40%	-3.7%
≤30d	16	+16.1%	+5.0%	50%	44%	+11.6%
≤90d	16	+16.1%	+5.0%	50%	44%	+11.6%
all	16	+16.1%	+5.0%	50%	44%	+11.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to5%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+5.0%	44%	+11.6%
10%	-5.0%	38%	+0.9%
15%	-14.2%	31%	-8.8%
20%	-22.6%	31%	-17.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 38% · top 2 60% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓

Fragile wins

12% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +16% · $-wt +23% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early +10% → late +22% edge persists early→late

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$27 vs −$13 · ×2.03 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.03 per $1 lost it wins $2.03

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage

Net worth$0

Realized+$51

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)50%

Wins / losses8 / 8

Est. fees paid−$1

Open positions0

Markets (closed)16 / 16

History coverage23d

Avg bet$29

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown41%

Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 0 History 16 Trades

no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	Jun 24	$26	−$15	-57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	Jun 24	$26	+$31	+117%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	Jun 24	$26	+$4	+14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	Jun 24	$26	−$3	-10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	Jun 24	$26	+$7	+28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	Jun 24	$53	−$5	-8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	Jun 24	$26	+$29	+109%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	Jun 24	$26	−$3	-13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	Jun 24	$26	−$5	-19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	Jun 24	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	Jun 24	$27	+$46	+174%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	Jun 23	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	Jun 23	$26	−$25	-96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	Jun 23	$26	+$2	+8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	Jun 23	$26	+$13	+50%
Knicks vs. Spurs	Jun 04	$50	+$82	+165%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	SELL Up	20¢	$11	11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET	BUY Up	42¢	$26	12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	SELL Up	72¢	$57	17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET	BUY Up	31¢	$26	18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	SELL Up	53¢	$30	24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET	BUY Up	43¢	$26	25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	SELL Down	60¢	$23	48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET	BUY Down	63¢	$26	49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	SELL Up	50¢	$34	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$26	53m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	SELL Up	15¢	$23	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Up	16¢	$26	57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	SELL Up	16¢	$6	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	SELL Up	14¢	$15	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	SELL Up	13¢	$4	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET	BUY Up	13¢	$27	59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	SELL Up	48¢	$55	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET	BUY Up	21¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	SELL Up	54¢	$22	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	SELL Up	32¢	$21	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET	BUY Up	36¢	$26	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	SELL Up	17¢	$73	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET	BUY Up	5¢	$27	1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET	BUY Up	45¢	$26	19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET	BUY Down	47¢	$26	23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	SELL Up	66¢	$28	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET	BUY Up	58¢	$26	24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET	SELL Down	79¢	$39	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 33 history records