Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:13:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x501b…fba0 world 116 markets active 0h ago coverage 348d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$599 (-6%) realized −$546 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -23% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate42%45W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$80per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$406now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$161
14 days−$153
30 days−$159
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$146
sports 14% −$355
other 13% −$91
culture 1% −$2
politics 1% −$35
crypto 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-30.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -72.6% -75.2% 25% 0% -35.5%
≤30d 17 +12.9% +2.1% 53% 41% -16.3%
≤90d 51 -31.2% -37.7% 35% 27% -20.9%
all 107 -23.2% -30.6% 42% 26% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -30.6% 26% -15.3%
10% -37.2% 20% -23.4%
15% -43.3% 19% -30.8%
20% -48.8% 14% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -23% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -35% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$31 vs −$32 · ×0.98 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

348d coverage
Net worth$406
Realized−$546
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses45 / 62
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions9
Markets (closed)107 / 116
History coverage348d
Avg bet$80
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $199 $202 +$3 (+2%)
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 90¢ 75¢ $154 $129 −$25 (-16%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 9¢ $45 $35 −$10 (-22%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $18 $17 −$2 (-8%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 7¢ $20 $15 −$4 (-23%)
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 11¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-23%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 23¢ 13¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-44%)
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 55¢ 53¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 45¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 14 $223 +$21 +10%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $205 −$166 -81%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $6 −$6 -100%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 07 $80 +$9 +11%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 02 $32 −$32 -100%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Jun 02 $192 −$72 -37%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $200 +$11 +5%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 30 $24 +$13 +52%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $70 +$28 +39%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $9 +$12 +133%
Will the New York Knicks win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? May 25 $151 +$55 +36%
Will Jordan Henderson be included in England's official 2026 World Cup May 23 $20 −$20 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 23 $66 −$56 -86%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 23 $31 −$11 -35%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 23 $50 +$35 +71%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 23 $6 +$31 +519%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $83 +$1 +2%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $114 +$17 +15%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 14, 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Middlesbrough FC win on 2026-05-09? May 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Atlético Madrid reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? May 17 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Deni Avdija win the 2025–2026 NBA Most Improved Player? May 17 $244 −$138 -57%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers May 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 15, 2026? May 17 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Donald Trump not visit China by May 31, 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-04-04? May 17 $44 −$44 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? May 17 $38 −$38 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? May 17 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 17 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 17 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 26, 2026? May 17 $55 −$55 -100%
Magic vs. Pistons May 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Israel be in the top 3 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $10 +$15 +143%
Will Israel be in the top 5 at Eurovision 2026? May 17 $203 +$100 +49%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 16 $111 +$41 +37%
Will Jose Mourinho be appointed as manager of Real Madrid? May 13 $67 +$4 +6%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 13, 2026? May 13 $1 $0 +19%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 10 $10 $0 -4%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 10 $10 −$2 -21%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 10 $10 −$5 -50%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $30 +$11 +36%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Timberwolves vs. Nuggets May 01 $100 +$73 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 5m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $2 30m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $10 34m
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $41 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $58 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $34 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $34 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 4d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 8¢ $10 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $35 4d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 19¢ $35 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $6 6d
Will Netherlands advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 11¢ $5 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $11 8d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $108 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $108 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $131 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $45 10d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 21¢ $15 11d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $102 11d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 47¢ $44 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $43 13d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 64¢ $146 16d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 2¢ $145 16d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $103 17d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $28 17d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $55 17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 100¢ $26 17d
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? SELL Yes 58¢ $40 17d
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 48¢ $11 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $406.09 · official $406.11 (match) · 418 history records