Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T06:40:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
50 0x5015…b1fb crypto 542 markets active 2h ago coverage 178d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,086 (-1%) realized −$1,159 · open +$73
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR9%break-even
Win rate91%495W / 46L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$194per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$4,684now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 64% −$1,214
crypto 26% +$11
other 10% +$83
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +9%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 541 -2.1% -11.4% 91% 9% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 9% -10.6%
10% -19.9% 2% -19.2%
15% -27.6% 1% -27.0%
20% -34.7% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$76 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

178d coverage
Net worth$4,684
Realized−$1,159
Unrealized+$73
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses495 / 46
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)541 / 542
History coverage178d
Avg bet$194
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 541 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 92¢ 93¢ $4,611 $4,684 +$73 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Mar 12 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Mar 12 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 12 $106 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 12 $186 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Mar 12 $86 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Mar 12 $48 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Mar 12 $49 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 12 $78 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 12 $108 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 12 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 12 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 12 $75 +$5 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 12 $62 +$8 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 12 $9 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Mar 12 $112 +$8 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Mar 11 $131 −$131 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Mar 11 $146 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Mar 11 $16 +$4 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Mar 11 $166 +$4 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Mar 11 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Mar 11 $42 +$8 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Mar 11 $196 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Mar 11 $115 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Mar 11 $135 +$5 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Mar 11 $38 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Mar 11 $82 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 11 $98 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Mar 10 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Mar 10 $10 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Mar 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Mar 10 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Mar 10 $18 +$2 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Mar 10 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Mar 10 $40 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 10, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Mar 10 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Mar 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Mar 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Mar 10 $20 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Mar 10 $20 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Mar 10 $9 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Mar 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Mar 10 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Mar 10 $37 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 10 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Mar 10 $108 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Mar 10 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Mar 10 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Mar 10 $99 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 9, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Mar 10 $156 +$4 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $186 1h
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $56 3d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $186 4d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 93¢ $185 7d
Xi Jinping out before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $184 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $18 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $9 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $19 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $29 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $48 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 100¢ $20 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $20 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $50 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $49 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $47 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $28 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $28 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $48 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $49 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $49 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $19 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 100¢ $20 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $30 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 101d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 11, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $29 101d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,684.27 · official $4,684.27 (match) · 2020 history records