Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:38:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5013…17ea other 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$81 (-13%) realized −$92 · open +$11
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$19per market
Trades / day30.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit61%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% −$52
sports 26% +$55
other 22% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -1.4% -10.8% 44% 41% -11.6%
≤30d 27 -1.4% -10.8% 44% 41% -11.6%
≤90d 27 -1.4% -10.8% 44% 41% -11.6%
all 27 -1.4% -10.8% 44% 41% -11.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.8% 41% -11.6%
10% ← realistic here -19.3% 37% -20.0%
15% -27.1% 26% -27.8%
20% -34.3% 22% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$15 · ×1.19 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$92
Unrealized+$11
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 33
History coverage2d
Avg bet$19
Trades / day30.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit61%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs T1 Academy 59¢ 84¢ $27 $38 +$11 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$45 +425%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $25 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$13 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $52 +$9 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $52 −$2 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $26 +$2 +7%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $20 +$44 +216%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$22 -86%
Luka Modrić: 1+ assists Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: Bo Jun 17 $20 +$69 +335%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 2+ goals Jun 17 $4 +$1 +27%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $30 +$16 +52%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Dplus KIA Challengers (BO5) - Asia Mast Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
France leading at halftime? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Kylian Mbappé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $4 +$4 +109%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $15 +$7 +48%
Désiré Doué: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 +$1 +28%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ assists Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 10¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 28¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 34¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET SELL Up 51¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 39¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $25 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 43¢ $28 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 2h
LoL: Dplus KIA Challengers vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playoffs BUY T1 Academy 59¢ $27 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No $10 10h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes $4 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.21 · official $38.21 (match) · 65 history records