Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T03:46:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5012…4d3e sports 804 markets active 1h ago coverage 43d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 43d only
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,972 (-5%) realized −$1,972 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate57%456W / 348L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day65.1pace
Fees−$363est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$59
7 days−$755
14 days−$1,443
30 days−$3,087
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 67% −$3,498
other 26% +$1,303
crypto 3% −$95
world 1% +$275
weather 1% −$13
politics 0% −$3
finance 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 56 -10.7% -19.2% 66% 34% -25.8%
≤30d 298 -7.4% -16.2% 48% 33% -30.1%
≤90d 804 +1.0% -8.6% 57% 45% -14.4%
all 804 +1.0% -8.6% 57% 45% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover65.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 45% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -17.3% 36% -22.6%
15% -25.3% 28% -30.1%
20% -32.6% 22% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$38 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

43d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$1,972
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses456 / 348
Est. fees paid−$363
Open positions0
Markets (closed)804 / 804
History coverage43d ⚠
Avg bet$47
Trades / day65.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 804 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $85 +$23 +27%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $52 +$20 +38%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $85 +$21 +24%
Norway leading at halftime? Jun 17 $4 +$3 +83%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $85 +$15 +17%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +12%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $27 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? Jun 16 $85 +$2 +2%
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? Jun 16 $75 +$1 +1%
Uruguay to win the second half? Jun 16 $75 −$1 -2%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $75 +$1 +1%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $50 +$62 +123%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $50 +$63 +126%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 15 $74 +$1 +1%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 0 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 15 $75 +$1 +2%
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals Jun 15 $40 +$5 +12%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $60 +$10 +16%
Will Operário Ferroviário EC win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will CF Universidad de Chile win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $8 +$1 +7%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $75 +$4 +6%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 14 $75 +$6 +8%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $75 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 14 $75 +$8 +11%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $75 +$13 +17%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $48 −$48 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $126 +$47 +38%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $299 −$299 -100%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 2 Winner Jun 14 $153 −$153 -100%
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $180 −$180 -100%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 2 Türkiye? Jun 14 $75 +$5 +6%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 1 Türkiye? Jun 14 $54 +$2 +3%
Exact Score: Australia 1 - 0 Türkiye? Jun 14 $27 +$2 +7%
Spread: Spurs (-9.5) Jun 14 $201 +$180 +90%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 12 $198 −$198 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $63 −$63 -100%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $62 −$62 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $38 −$38 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $40 +$75 +188%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $75 +$4 +5%
Czechia to score first vs. Korea Republic? Jun 12 $4 +$1 +13%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 0.5 Jun 12 $73 −$3 -4%
Korea Republic to score first vs. Czechia? Jun 12 $66 +$6 +8%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $75 −$5 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $108 36m
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 63¢ $72 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $41 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $4 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $2 1h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 45¢ $1 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 78¢ $85 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 80¢ $85 3h
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? BUY No 89¢ $4 3h
Norway leading at halftime? BUY Yes 54¢ $4 5h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 85¢ $85 5h
France vs. Senegal: Senegal 2nd Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 100¢ $27 6h
Counter-Strike: K27 vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Playof BUY 100 Thieves 37¢ $101 12h
Exact Score: IR Iran 2 - 3 New Zealand? BUY No 98¢ $85 24h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? SELL No 100¢ $76 26h
Exact Score: IR Iran 0 - 2 New Zealand? BUY No 99¢ $75 26h
Uruguay to win the second half? SELL Yes 64¢ $32 27h
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 2 - 0 Uruguay? BUY No 99¢ $75 28h
Uruguay to win the second half? BUY Yes 81¢ $75 28h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Belgium O/U 1.5 BUY Under 99¢ $75 30h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 66¢ $50 34h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $112 34h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 44¢ $50 37h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL 9z 95¢ $113 37h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 41¢ $50 39h
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY No 99¢ $74 2d
Amad Diallo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 89¢ $40 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Neither team to score first? BUY No 86¢ $60 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records