Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:47:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5011…94b4 sports 670 markets active 0h ago coverage 49d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 49d only
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$13,019 (-8%) realized −$13,311 · open +$292
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate45%300W / 366L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day58.2pace
Fees−$2,229est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$1,259now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,374
7 days−$3,494
14 days−$3,383
30 days−$5,942
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$9,930
other 2% +$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-19.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 78 -4.4% -13.5% 59% 29% -23.3%
≤30d 367 -7.7% -16.5% 49% 38% -14.8%
≤90d 666 -10.7% -19.2% 45% 38% -15.5%
all 666 -10.7% -19.2% 45% 38% -15.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover58.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.2% 38% -15.5%
10% ← realistic here -27.0% 34% -23.6%
15% -34.0% 30% -30.9%
20% -40.5% 26% -37.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
16% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -10% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$164 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$1,259
Realized−$13,311
Unrealized+$292
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses300 / 366
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$2,229
Open positions4
Markets (closed)666 / 670
History coverage49d ⚠
Avg bet$233
Trades / day58.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 666 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner LGD Gaming 69¢ 100¢ $824 $1,193 +$370 (+45%)
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America Closed Qualifier Playoffs LGD Gaming 100¢ 100¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 40¢ 40¢ $27 $27 +$0 (+0%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Team Falcons 22¢ 0¢ $78 $0 −$78 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $230 −$210 -91%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $245 −$245 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $732 +$927 +127%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 19 $12 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $944 +$529 +56%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Spirit (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 19 $2 +$1 +45%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 19 $545 +$410 +75%
Dota 2: Grind Back vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - The International Sout Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Game Handicap: Grind (-1.5) vs Mentality Monster (+1.5) Jun 19 $38 −$38 -100%
Map 1 Rounds Handicap: SaD Esports (-2.5) vs M80 (+2.5) Jun 19 $99 +$1 +1%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 18 $90 −$90 -100%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs 9z (+3.5) Jun 18 $223 +$2 +1%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $180 −$180 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $450 +$449 +100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 18 $596 +$44 +7%
Map 2 Rounds Handicap: LYON (-5.5) vs Chivas Esports (+5.5) Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 Jun 18 $25 $0 +1%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Division One (-2.5) vs Team Evictix (+2.5) Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Evictix (-2.5) vs Division One (+2.5) Jun 18 $5 $0 +1%
Game Handicap: PlayTime (-1.5) vs Team Nemesis (+1.5) Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs PlayTime - Game 2 Winner Jun 18 $210 −$210 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 $0 +0%
Game Handicap: 4iki (-1.5) vs Flame Team (+1.5) Jun 17 $1,003 +$1 +0%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs 4ikibamboni - Game 1 Winner Jun 17 $286 −$286 -100%
Counter-Strike: SPARTA vs INOX Division - Map 1 Winner Jun 17 $48 +$75 +155%
Map Handicap: SPARTA (-1.5) vs Bebop (+1.5) Jun 17 $581 +$128 +22%
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 17 $18 −$18 -100%
Game Handicap: REF (-1.5) vs Game Master (+1.5) Jun 17 $1,239 −$1,239 -100%
Dota 2: Flame Team vs Spirit Academy (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 17 $313 −$313 -100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs G2 (+3.5) Jun 15 $1 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $419 −$419 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $914 −$305 -33%
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 15 $20 $0 +1%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $1,059 −$1,059 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $115 −$115 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $309 −$309 -100%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 15 $406 +$243 +60%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Young Ninjas (+1.5) Jun 15 $39 +$6 +14%
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs GenOne - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $710 −$710 -100%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-6.5) vs Team Falcons (+6.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-3.5) vs Team Falcons (+3.5) Jun 14 $663 +$317 +48%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-6.5) vs Natus Vincere (+6.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Team Falcons (-3.5) vs Natus Vincere (+3.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Natus Vincere (-9.5) vs Team Falcons (+9.5) Jun 14 $5 $0 +1%
Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 14 $16 −$16 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 14 $628 −$628 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 40¢ $2 1m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Vitality 40¢ $26 1m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY LGD Gaming 100¢ $995 36m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 1¢ $6 37m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 69¢ $86 56m
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America SELL PlayTime 1¢ $6 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America SELL PlayTime 1¢ $2 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America SELL PlayTime 1¢ $1 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 16¢ $16 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 16¢ $2 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 16¢ $3 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner BUY Team Falcons 25¢ $57 1h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime - Game 3 Winner BUY LGD Gaming 69¢ $738 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $1,659 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $324 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $236 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $1 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $79 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $25 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $0 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 44¢ $11 2h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $6 3h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 45¢ $41 3h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 34¢ $185 3h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 34¢ $1 3h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 34¢ $33 3h
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs PlayTime (BO5) - The International South America BUY PlayTime 34¢ $107 3h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $1,473 4h
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 BUY Over 99¢ $12 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,259.02 · official $1,259.02 (match) · 3500 history records