Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:33:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x500e…bd16
other · 11 markets active 0h ago
4.5score
+$287 +162%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$288 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$44
Realized+$288
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses4 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions3
Markets (closed)8 / 11
History coverage1d
Avg bet$16
Trades / day18.0
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit55%
Chart Positions 3 History 8 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$288
7 days+$288
14 days+$288
30 days+$288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Yes 47¢ 48¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals Yes 34¢ 34¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals Yes 20¢ 14¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-28%)
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals Yes 48¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $19 +$344 +1765%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -98%
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 13 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +25%
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals Jun 13 $30 −$16 -54%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 54% −$57
crypto 23% +$1
sports 23% +$344
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ismael Saibari: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $5 18m
Igor Thiago: 1+ goals BUY Yes 34¢ $20 19m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $363 29m
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes $19 45m
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes $0 46m
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals SELL Yes $0 47m
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET SELL Down 85¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Down 79¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 74¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 79¢ $5 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 16¢ $5 1h
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 48¢ $9 1h
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals SELL Yes 30¢ $13 1h
Breel Embolo: 2+ goals BUY Yes 45¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 2h
Dan Ndoye: 1+ goals BUY Yes 38¢ $20 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+151.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +177.5% +151.1% 50% 50% +232.1%
≤30d 8 +177.5% +151.1% 50% 50% +232.1%
≤90d 8 +177.5% +151.1% 50% 50% +232.1%
all 8 +177.5% +151.1% 50% 50% +232.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +151.1% 50% +232.1%
10% +127.1% 25% +200.3%
15% +105.1% 12% +171.3%
20% +85.0% 12% +144.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.84 · official $43.84 (match) · 22 history records