Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T11:57:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x500e…6bc1 politics 150 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,732 (+1%) realized +$1,731 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate17%26W / 123L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$1,653per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$380now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$25
14 days+$14
30 days−$227
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$129
other 36% +$1,570
sports 13% +$270
culture 3% −$8
economics 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$1
world 1% −$5
tech 1% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-5.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 34 -5.1% -14.2% 6% 3% -9.8%
≤90d 112 -6.0% -15.0% 6% 4% -9.9%
all 149 +4.0% -5.9% 17% 14% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.9% 14% -8.9%
10% -14.9% 13% -17.6%
15% -23.1% 11% -25.6%
20% -30.7% 11% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 63% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$2,533) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +11% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$110 vs −$10 · ×11.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.46 per $1 lost it wins $2.46
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$380
Realized+$1,731
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses26 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)149 / 150
History coverage123d
Avg bet$1,653
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 149 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 99¢ 100¢ $379 $380 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $863 −$1 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $9,390 −$10 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $2,722 −$3 -0%
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $2,611 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $3,471 −$4 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,425 −$3 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $1,534 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $3,691 −$5 -0%
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $1,427 −$2 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $2,700 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $6,900 −$10 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $4,657 −$5 -0%
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $1,348 −$2 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $55 +$71 +129%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $1,387 −$2 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $1,269 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $68 −$68 -100%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $2,539 −$4 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,995 −$4 -0%
Will Solana dip to $60 in May? Jun 02 $552 +$2 +0%
Will Tereza Cristina win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $826 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $2,538 −$3 -0%
Will Haas be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 28 $803 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $909 −$1 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,529 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $2,744 −$4 -0%
Houston Astros vs. Chicago Cubs May 25 $83 −$83 -100%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $1,351 −$2 -0%
Detroit Tigers vs. Baltimore Orioles May 23 $53 −$53 -100%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,349 −$2 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 22 $4,615 −$6 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $1,314 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $1,311 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in May? May 19 $816 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $2,555 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $5,393 −$6 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 09 $1,520 −$2 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 09 $1,526 −$2 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 09 $2,899 −$4 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 May 08 $1,535 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 08 $1,389 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 05 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 05 $1,344 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $2,908 −$4 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $2,114 −$3 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 03 $1,239 −$2 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $2,986 −$4 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $1,587 −$2 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 02 $1,676 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $861 1h
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $863 2h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,085 26h
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,086 27h
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,144 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,146 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,151 2d
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,152 2d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,145 3d
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,147 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,138 3d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,139 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 99¢ $379 6d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,532 7d
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,534 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,529 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,532 7d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,425 8d
Will Graham Platner win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,427 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,422 8d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,424 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,536 8d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,539 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,538 9d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,540 9d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,346 10d
Will Gérald Darmanin win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,348 10d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,219 11d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,221 11d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,364 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $380.16 · official $380.16 (match) · 510 history records