Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:48:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
50 0x500e…6118 sports 311 markets active 0h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,697 (+4%) realized +$1,698 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%171W / 139L
Drawdown50%max
Avg bet$126per market
Trades / day3.8pace
Fees−$149est.
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$77
7 days−$84
14 days−$147
30 days−$147
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 80% +$1,897
other 12% −$117
crypto 7% −$199
finance 1% −$143
tech 1% +$86
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-11.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -35.1% -41.3% 33% 33% -17.1%
≤30d 25 -14.3% -22.5% 40% 40% -17.6%
≤90d 138 -15.1% -23.2% 46% 43% -15.9%
all 310 -2.0% -11.3% 55% 54% -6.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.3% 54% -6.0%
10% -19.8% 53% -15.0%
15% -27.5% 46% -23.2%
20% -34.6% 31% -30.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late -11% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$81 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized+$1,698
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses171 / 139
Est. fees paid−$149
Open positions1
Markets (closed)310 / 311
History coverage121d
Avg bet$126
Trades / day3.8
Drawdown50%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 310 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$8 -41%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? Jun 23 $21 −$19 -94%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $80 −$38 -47%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$19 +19%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $30 −$30 -98%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $25 −$7 -26%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 +$55 +54%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $26 +$40 +155%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $17 −$17 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $136 +$68 +50%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 16 $36 −$35 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$76 +250%
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin Jun 15 $51 +$105 +206%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $113 −$111 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $102 −$81 -79%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 12 $152 −$150 -99%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $101 +$42 +42%
Paris (Doubles): Kichenok/Krawczyk vs Aoyama/Liang May 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Bordeaux: Alex Molcan vs Rei Sakamoto May 14 $101 +$40 +40%
Madrid Open: Jessica Pegula vs Marta Kostyuk Apr 26 $130 −$128 -99%
Madrid Open: Ben Shelton vs Dino Prizmic Apr 24 $200 −$67 -34%
Rome: Andrea Guerrieri vs Arthur Fery Apr 24 $150 −$150 -100%
Madrid Open: Patrick Kypson vs Stefanos Tsitsipas Apr 23 $100 +$9 +9%
Madrid Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Titouan Droguet Apr 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Madrid Open: Moyuka Uchijima vs Yulia Starodubtseva Apr 22 $150 +$85 +57%
Shymkent: Max Wiskandt vs Gilles Arnaud Bailly Apr 22 $100 −$100 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Benjamin Bonzi Apr 21 $190 +$113 +59%
Gwangju: Pavel Kotov vs Mikhail Kukushkin Apr 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Rome: Jacopo Vasami vs Frederico Ferreira Silva Apr 21 $15 −$1 -5%
Shymkent: Daniil Ostapenkov vs Samuele Pieri Apr 21 $100 −$15 -15%
Gwangju: James McCabe vs Kaichi Uchida Apr 21 $200 +$71 +36%
Gwangju: Hayato Matsuoka vs Tristan Schoolkate Apr 21 $200 +$87 +43%
Oeiras 4: Francesca Jones vs Guiomar Maristany Apr 21 $100 −$100 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Donna Vekic vs Leolia Jeanjean Apr 20 $100 −$100 -100%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Elvina Kalieva vs Suzan Lamens Apr 20 $100 −$84 -84%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Otto Virtanen vs Titouan Droguet Apr 20 $100 −$49 -49%
Madrid Open, Qualification: Nikola Bartunkova vs Katarzyna Kawa Apr 20 $100 +$33 +33%
Gwangju: Mark Lajal vs Maximus Jones Apr 20 $120 −$15 -13%
Barcelona Open: Andrey Rublev vs Arthur Fils Apr 19 $100 +$31 +31%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elena Rybakina vs Karolina Muchova Apr 19 $150 +$65 +43%
Tallahassee: Joao Lucas Da Silva vs Jack Kennedy Apr 19 $150 +$75 +50%
Porsche Tennis Grand Prix: Elina Svitolina vs Karolina Muchova Apr 18 $150 +$12 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes $12 3m
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? SELL Yes $1 28m
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 7h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 0 Uzbekistan? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 7h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 26¢ $38 23h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 27¢ $5 23h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 81¢ $120 23h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $80 36h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 36h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $30 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 27¢ $19 2d
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 35¢ $25 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $111 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 91¢ $156 2d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $101 3d
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $26 4d
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $15 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 71¢ $65 5d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $17 5d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 5d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $31 6d
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $36 6d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $136 7d
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $31 8d
Nottingham 2: Oliver Tarvet vs Roman Safiullin BUY Roman Safiullin 32¢ $51 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99.22 · official $99.22 (match) · 658 history records