Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:14:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
50 0x500c…8acd sports 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 41d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$181 (+22%) realized +$194 · open −$13
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate29%15W / 36L
Drawdown40%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$47now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$30
7 days−$26
14 days+$163
30 days+$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$248
other 21% −$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-26.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 -29.1% -35.9% 28% 28% -18.3%
≤30d 30 -22.0% -29.5% 30% 30% +16.0%
≤90d 51 -18.9% -26.6% 29% 29% +11.5%
all 51 -18.9% -26.6% 29% 29% +11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.6% 29% +11.5%
10% -33.6% 27% +0.8%
15% -40.1% 27% -8.9%
20% -45.9% 27% -17.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +23% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt +23% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$11 · ×3.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.44 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

41d coverage
Net worth$47
Realized+$194
Unrealized−$13
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses15 / 36
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions2
Markets (closed)51 / 55
History coverage41d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown40%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 51 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-5%)
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Yes 23¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$12 +60%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -97%
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -97%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? Jun 16 $20 +$36 +177%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $10 +$28 +272%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 +$75 +246%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 12 $10 −$10 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 12 $10 −$10 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 11 $20 +$22 +106%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $82 +$123 +150%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 07 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Farés Ziam vs. Tom Nolan (Lightweight, Prelims) Jun 07 $10 +$28 +272%
UFC Fight Night: Matt Schnell vs. Alessandro Costa (Catchweight, Preli Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Yuneisy Duben vs. Jeisla Chaves (Women's Flyweight, P Jun 06 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Ariane Carnelossi vs. Ketlen Souza (Women's Strawweig Jun 06 $26 −$25 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $91 +$122 +134%
MVP Fight Night: Nate Diaz vs. Mike Perry May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Arnold Allen vs. Melquizael Costa (Featherweight, Mai May 17 $25 −$25 -98%
MVP Fight Night: Francis Ngannou vs. Philipe Lins May 17 $5 −$5 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $15 +$22 +143%
UFC Fight Night: Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Diaz (Bantamweight, Main C May 17 $10 +$21 +206%
UFC Fight Night: Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards (Light Heavy May 17 $5 −$5 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 16 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Tommy Gantt vs. Artur Minev (Lightweight, Prelims) May 16 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Ketlen Vieira vs. Jacqueline Cavalcanti (Women's Bant May 16 $10 −$10 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Cody Brundage vs. Andre Petroski (Middleweight, Preli May 16 $10 −$10 -99%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 16 $2 −$2 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Alice Ardelean vs. Polyana Viana (Women's Strawweight May 16 $2 −$2 -98%
O/U 2.5 Rounds May 16 $2 +$1 +65%
UFC Fight Night: Daniel Barez vs. Luis Gurule (Flyweight, Prelims) May 16 $2 −$2 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Nicolle Caliari vs. Shauna Bannon (Women's Strawweigh May 16 $2 −$2 -97%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $16 +$59 +360%
UFC 328: Jeremy Stephens vs. King Green (Lightweight, Main Card) May 10 $5 −$5 -98%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $2 −$2 -97%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $10 −$10 -98%
UFC 328: Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki (Lightweight, Prelims) May 10 $2 +$4 +177%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 23¢ $10 36m
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $51 1h
Uzbekistan to score first vs. Colombia? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 44h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 44h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 39¢ $10 44h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $20 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $32 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 13¢ $12 2d
Jordan to score first vs. Austria? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 2d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Algeria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 12¢ $21 2d
Iraq to score first vs. Norway? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 2d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $10 2d
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: New Zealand O/U 2.5 BUY Over 19¢ $10 3d
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? SELL Yes 99¢ $57 3d
New Zealand to score first vs. IR Iran? BUY Yes 35¢ $20 3d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 99¢ $38 3d
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecua BUY 10¢ $10 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 25¢ $31 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $106 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $31 5d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? AND W BUY 3¢ $21 6d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 7d
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes BUY Golden Knights 39¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.32 · official $47.32 (match) · 81 history records