Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:42:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x500b…b1a1 sports 275 markets active 1h ago coverage 34d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$403 (-4%) realized −$389 · open −$14
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate43%117W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$40per market
Trades / day15.3pace
Fees−$141est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$121now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$86
7 days−$381
14 days−$2,017
30 days−$2,069
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% −$1,664
other 9% −$274
crypto 1% −$63
world 0% −$42
politics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-22.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 -18.2% -26.0% 45% 41% -28.7%
≤30d 264 -16.3% -24.2% 42% 38% -20.5%
≤90d 270 -14.3% -22.4% 43% 39% -20.1%
all 270 -14.3% -22.4% 43% 39% -20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.4% 39% -20.1%
10% -29.8% 37% -27.8%
15% -36.6% 36% -34.7%
20% -42.8% 31% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$38 · ×0.86 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

34d coverage
Net worth$121
Realized−$389
Unrealized−$14
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses117 / 153
Est. fees paid−$141
Open positions5
Markets (closed)270 / 275
History coverage34d
Avg bet$40
Trades / day15.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 270 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $60 $60 −$0 (-1%)
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 Over 50¢ 46¢ $30 $28 −$2 (-7%)
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Yes 57¢ 57¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 77¢ 46¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-40%)
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $5 $1 −$4 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 94 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $67 +$3 +4%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $31 +$26 +84%
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $31 +$27 +88%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $31 −$30 -98%
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 Jun 16 $31 −$30 -98%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $10 +$5 +47%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 15 $61 +$52 +84%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $10 +$25 +242%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $26 +$9 +35%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $92 −$92 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $31 +$22 +72%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $77 +$40 +52%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $41 −$40 -97%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $51 +$21 +41%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $52 −$52 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 169.5 Jun 12 $16 −$15 -98%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $8 +$10 +116%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Stuttgart Open: Martin Landaluce vs Taylor Fritz Jun 11 $21 +$24 +116%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 11 $31 +$24 +78%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 11 $61 +$35 +57%
Libema Open: Daniil Medvedev vs Thijs Boogaard Jun 11 $31 −$30 -96%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $52 −$50 -97%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 11 $31 −$30 -96%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $20 −$11 -56%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $51 +$1 +2%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 11 $20 +$20 +95%
Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers Jun 11 $31 +$25 +81%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 Jun 11 $45 +$45 +102%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 11 $62 −$60 -97%
St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets Jun 10 $31 −$30 -97%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 8.5 Jun 10 $31 −$30 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 10 $62 −$60 -97%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $31 +$21 +69%
Libema Open: Jessica Bouzas Maneiro vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 10 $31 +$28 +91%
HSBC Championships: Victoria Mboko vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 10 $61 −$60 -98%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $62 −$60 -98%
ITF kiseljak: Josip Simundza vs Yannick Baluska Jun 10 $30 −$14 -45%
Libema Open: James McCabe vs Zizou Bergs Jun 10 $31 +$12 +40%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 10 $30 +$2 +5%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals: O/U 9.5 Jun 10 $49 +$48 +97%
Chicago Cubs vs. Colorado Rockies: O/U 12.5 Jun 10 $61 +$56 +91%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $19 +$20 +103%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 50¢ $31 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $20 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 5h
Los Angeles Angels vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 53¢ $31 17h
Cleveland Guardians vs. Milwaukee Brewers: O/U 8.5 BUY Under 53¢ $31 19h
New York Mets vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 54¢ $31 20h
Kansas City Royals vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 52¢ $31 21h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 21h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $15 21h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 31¢ $55 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $10 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 23h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 26h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 26h
Spread: Philadelphia Phillies (-1.5) BUY Miami Marlins 54¢ $31 44h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $20 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 54¢ $31 2d
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 52¢ $31 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $35 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $21 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $5 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 30¢ $31 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $31 2d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes $5 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 3d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 52¢ $31 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 53¢ $31 4d
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 44¢ $21 5d
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 1 Winner BUY TheMongolz 57¢ $31 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $121.06 · official $123.46 · 717 history records