Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:23:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
50 0x500a…6866 sports 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,588 (+14%) realized +$2,553 · open +$35
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$1,171per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$83est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,235now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,510
7 days+$2,996
14 days+$3,444
30 days+$3,444
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$6,939
sports 31% −$4,478
politics 1% +$9
weather 1% +$3
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-25.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -13.2% -21.5% 50% 50% +8.4%
≤30d 12 -3.9% -13.0% 67% 42% +9.4%
≤90d 13 -11.3% -19.7% 62% 38% +3.2%
all 14 -17.6% -25.5% 57% 36% +3.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.5% 36% +3.2%
10% -32.6% 36% -6.7%
15% -39.1% 36% -15.7%
20% -45.1% 21% -24.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,044 vs −$985 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$1,235
Realized+$2,553
Unrealized+$35
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$83
Open positions1
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage102d
Avg bet$1,171
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Over 52¢ 54¢ $1,200 $1,235 +$35 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $3,689 +$2,014 +55%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $509 −$500 -98%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $3,039 −$3,000 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3,159 +$4,085 +129%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $2,019 +$922 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,363 +$882 +65%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1,415 −$1,396 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $986 +$433 +44%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on April 2? Jun 17 $49 +$3 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 11 Jun 17 $118 +$3 +2%
Will Chad Bianco advance from the 2026 California Governor primary ele Jun 17 $134 +$9 +7%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $1,018 −$1,000 -98%
Spread: FC Cajamarca (-2.5) Mar 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,234.62 · official $1,234.62 (match) · 28 history records