Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T17:19:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5007…fadd world 41 markets active 0h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate49%20W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days+$7
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% $0
other 24% −$1
crypto 5% +$2
culture 2% $0
economics 2% $0
politics 1% $0
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-11.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 40% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 16 +2.5% -7.2% 50% 19% -9.6%
≤90d 16 +2.5% -7.2% 50% 19% -9.6%
all 41 -2.1% -11.4% 49% 10% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.4% 10% -9.5%
10% -19.9% 2% -18.1%
15% -27.6% 0% -26.0%
20% -34.7% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.04 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$0
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses20 / 21
Open positions0
Markets (closed)41 / 41
History coverage470d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 41 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $66 +$1 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $102 $0 -0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $33 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $30 $0 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $30 +$2 +6%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $11 +$2 +18%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $9 +$2 +26%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 10 $24 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $51 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $3 $0 +11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $39 −$7 -17%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $30 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $27 −$2 -6%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Jul 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Jun 24 $13 $0 +3%
Will Another team win the UEFA Europa League? May 24 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the Eastern Conference? Apr 30 $16 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Apr 16 $14 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by June 30? Apr 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? Apr 15 $14 $0 +0%
Will Susan Crawford win by 8-10%? Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Canada join US as 51st state before July? Apr 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 11 $4 $0 +0%
Will Liverpool finish in 2nd place for the 2024-25 EPL season? Apr 11 $14 $0 +0%
Will Oscar Piastri be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 09 $13 $0 -0%
Will Russell Henley win The 2025 Masters? Apr 09 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days? Apr 08 $17 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Apr 07 $16 $0 -0%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 05 $16 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $360b and $370b on March 31? Apr 05 $16 $0 +2%
TikTok sale announced before April? Mar 30 $2 −$1 -65%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on March 28? Mar 29 $13 +$2 +12%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 23 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ontario resume electricity surcharge to the U.S. by next Friday? Mar 21 $16 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by Friday? Mar 16 $6 +$1 +9%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 15 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $89000 and $91000 on Mar 14? Mar 15 $15 $0 +3%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $34 2m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $8 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $25 16h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $34 16h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $13 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $21 46h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $33 47h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $34 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 87¢ $34 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $33 4d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $33 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 85¢ $34 4d
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 85¢ $34 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 76¢ $34 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 76¢ $34 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $14 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $16 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $13 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $17 6d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $31 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 41¢ $30 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $5 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 9¢ $1 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 7¢ $5 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 59¢ $30 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $6 9d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 59¢ $24 9d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $13 10d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.95 · official $0.00 (match) · 147 history records