Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:24:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0

score

50 0x5007…f207 other 7 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage

Total PnL +$22 (+21%) realized +$22 · open +$0

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -25% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip

Net edge-35%after slip

Net WR40%break-even

Win rate40%2W / 3L

Drawdown39%max

Avg bet$15per market

Trades / day5.7pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$55now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +40%

net ROI/market (all)-32.3%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	5	-25.2%	-32.3%	40%	40%	+33.3%
≤30d	5	-25.2%	-32.3%	40%	40%	+33.3%
≤90d	5	-25.2%	-32.3%	40%	40%	+33.3%
all	5	-25.2%	-32.3%	40%	40%	+33.3%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover5.7 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-32.3%	40%	+33.3%
10%	-38.8%	40%	+20.5%
15%	-44.7%	40%	+8.9%
20%	-50.1%	40%	-1.8%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +47% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -25% · $-wt +47% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs −$4 · ×4.31 wins bigger than losses

Profit factor

×2.87 per $1 lost it wins $2.87

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$55

Realized+$22

Unrealized+$0

Win rate (resolved)40%

Wins / losses2 / 3

Open positions2

Markets (closed)5 / 7

History coverage1d

Avg bet$15

Trades / day5.7

Drawdown39%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 5 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Yes	42¢	42¢	$30	$30	−$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	Yes	73¢	74¢	$25	$26	+$1 (+2%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$5	+$4	+73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$10	−$10	-99%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	Jun 17	$1	−$1	-97%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$1	−$1	-97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	Jun 16	$30	+$31	+101%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	73¢	$25	1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	64¢	$10	8h
Will England win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	57¢	$5	21h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17?	BUY Yes	3¢	$1	21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	42¢	$31	22h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	7¢	$1	28h
Will France win on 2026-06-16?	BUY Yes	49¢	$30	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $55.16 · official $55.16 (match) · 9 history records