Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T05:37:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
50 0x5005…a4c1 other 47 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$29 (-1%) realized −$30 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate33%15W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 90% −$4
world 7% $0
sports 3% −$26
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.1% -8.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 12 +0.4% -9.2% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 45 -6.1% -15.0% 33% 7% -10.1%
all 45 -6.1% -15.0% 33% 7% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 7% -10.1%
10% -23.2% 2% -18.7%
15% -30.6% 0% -26.5%
20% -37.4% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized−$30
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses15 / 30
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)45 / 47
History coverage86d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 45 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
James Comey sentenced to Prison in 2026? No 90¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $217 $0 -0%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $334 $0 -0%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $16 +$1 +6%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $308 $0 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $217 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 07 $226 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $230 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $108 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $108 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $217 $0 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $108 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $108 $0 -0%
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $109 $0 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 17 $343 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 17 $346 $0 -0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 16 $218 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 12 $109 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $109 $0 -0%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 08 $8 −$8 -99%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 08 $118 $0 -0%
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $118 $0 -0%
Will Poland win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $229 $0 -0%
Billions FDV above $300M one day after launch? May 06 $7 $0 +3%
Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $122 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $238 $0 -0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $122 $0 -0%
Will Azerbaijan win Eurovision 2026? May 01 $122 $0 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 29 $116 $0 -0%
Thunder vs. Suns Apr 29 $10 +$2 +23%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 26 $116 $0 -0%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Suns vs. Thunder Apr 25 $20 +$1 +6%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $20 −$20 -100%
76ers vs. Celtics Apr 20 $13 +$2 +12%
Bucks vs. 76ers Apr 13 $13 +$1 +7%
Heat vs. Wizards Apr 11 $12 +$1 +6%
Bucks vs. Pistons Apr 09 $11 +$1 +10%
Cavaliers vs. Grizzlies Apr 07 $10 +$1 +10%
Pacers vs. Cavaliers Apr 06 $9 +$1 +6%
Wizards vs. Heat Apr 05 $9 $0 +5%
Celtics vs. Bucks Apr 04 $8 +$1 +7%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $8 $0 +3%
Spurs vs. Bucks Mar 29 $8 $0 +5%
Lakers vs. Pacers Mar 28 $6 +$1 +19%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $109 1h
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $109 2d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $92 2d
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $92 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $92 5d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $92 6d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $16 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $108 6d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $108 9d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $108 9d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $108 12d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $108 12d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $108 14d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $108 14d
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $108 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $108 17d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $108 20d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $108 20d
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $108 21d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $108 21d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $108 23d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $108 23d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $108 24d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $108 24d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $108 26d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $108 26d
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $108 29d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $108 29d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $108 31d
Will Jordan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $109 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.54 · official $7.54 (match) · 168 history records