Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:32:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
50 0x5004…c03a sports 17 markets active 1h ago coverage 111d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$1,210 (-17%) realized −$1,210 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -19% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$429per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$1,210
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-26.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -16.7% -24.6% 0% 0% -24.6%
≤30d 1 -16.7% -24.6% 0% 0% -24.6%
≤90d 1 -16.7% -24.6% 0% 0% -24.6%
all 16 -18.8% -26.5% 44% 44% -24.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.5% 44% -24.6%
10% -33.5% 44% -31.8%
15% -39.9% 44% -38.4%
20% -45.8% 31% -44.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 61% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -19% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$393 vs −$440 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

111d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$1,210
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage111d
Avg bet$429
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ 60¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lakers vs. Thunder Jun 15 $12 −$2 -17%
Predators vs. Blue Jackets Mar 04 $291 +$229 +79%
Thunder vs. Knicks Mar 04 $403 −$403 -100%
Avalanche vs. Kings Mar 03 $539 +$331 +61%
Knicks vs. Raptors Mar 03 $396 −$396 -100%
Pelicans vs. Clippers Mar 02 $452 +$203 +45%
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers Mar 02 $242 −$242 -100%
Clippers vs. Warriors Mar 02 $475 −$475 -100%
Devils vs. Blues Mar 01 $635 +$635 +100%
Blues vs. Wild Mar 01 $483 −$483 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Penguins Mar 01 $1,070 −$1,070 -100%
Sabres vs. Panthers Feb 28 $953 +$1,032 +108%
Rockets vs. Heat Feb 28 $324 −$324 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls Feb 27 $367 +$288 +79%
Spurs vs. Raptors Feb 26 $72 +$33 +45%
Celtics vs. Nuggets Feb 24 $566 −$566 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Miami Marlins vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY Philadelphia Phillies 60¢ $10 58m
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 60¢ $2 35d
Lakers vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 60¢ $10 35d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 36¢ $271 103d
Thunder vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 36¢ $133 103d
Predators vs. Blue Jackets BUY Blue Jackets 56¢ $291 104d
Knicks vs. Raptors BUY Raptors 43¢ $396 104d
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 46¢ $18 105d
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers BUY Rangers 46¢ $223 105d
Clippers vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 49¢ $162 105d
Clippers vs. Warriors BUY Warriors 49¢ $313 105d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Avalanche 62¢ $91 105d
Avalanche vs. Kings BUY Avalanche 62¢ $448 105d
Blues vs. Wild BUY Wild 69¢ $483 106d
Golden Knights vs. Penguins BUY Golden Knights 58¢ $1,070 106d
Pelicans vs. Clippers BUY Clippers 69¢ $452 106d
Devils vs. Blues BUY Devils 50¢ $635 107d
Rockets vs. Heat BUY Rockets 60¢ $324 107d
Sabres vs. Panthers BUY Sabres 48¢ $10 108d
Sabres vs. Panthers BUY Sabres 48¢ $943 108d
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls BUY Trail Blazers 56¢ $222 110d
Trail Blazers vs. Bulls BUY Trail Blazers 56¢ $145 110d
Celtics vs. Nuggets BUY Celtics 39¢ $325 111d
Celtics vs. Nuggets BUY Celtics 39¢ $240 111d
Spurs vs. Raptors BUY Spurs 69¢ $59 111d
Spurs vs. Raptors BUY Spurs 69¢ $14 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.58 · official $9.58 (match) · 34 history records