Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T23:09:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

50
0x5002…7f53
other · 50 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$162 -25%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$159 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$49
Realized−$159
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses13 / 32
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)45 / 50
History coverage228d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit30%
Chart Positions 5 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-3%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 51¢ 52¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 47¢ 46¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 10¢ 10¢ $10 $10 −$1 (-5%)
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 38¢ 38¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+1%)
Will Trump say "Kamala" during "60 Minutes" on November 2? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? Yes 41¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-01? Yes 31¢ 0¢ $17 $0 −$17 (-100%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-03-28? Yes 35¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? Yes 40¢ 0¢ $18 $0 −$18 (-100%)
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-06? Yes 52¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? Yes 56¢ 0¢ $27 $0 −$27 (-100%)
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Yes 49¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-28? Yes 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will Trump say "News" or "Media" 10+ times during "60 Minutes" on November 2? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will South Africa win on 2026-03-31? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - October 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-01-17? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Yes 42¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-04? Yes 67¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-03? Yes 34¢ 0¢ $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
Will Iceland win on 2026-03-31? Yes 60¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $14 −$1 -6%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $17 −$14 -83%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $7 +$12 +165%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $7 +$1 +11%
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? Jun 10 $10 $0 -3%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -98%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $18 −$18 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET May 29 $26 +$20 +76%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? May 29 $6 +$4 +67%
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $7 +$21 +291%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $5 +$4 +83%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? May 23 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Brighton & Hove Albion FC vs. Manchester United FC end in a draw? May 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET May 23 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-31? Apr 01 $11 +$6 +54%
Will Iceland win on 2026-03-31? Mar 28 $12 −$12 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-03-31? Mar 28 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Portugal win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $20 −$10 -51%
Will Belgium win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $10 +$14 +138%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-03-28? Mar 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Mar 27 $10 +$7 +71%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-01-18? Jan 18 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Sunderland AFC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 17 $10 +$17 +170%
Will Fulham FC win on 2026-01-17? Jan 10 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? Jan 10 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 03 $27 +$24 +89%
Will West Ham United FC win on 2026-01-03? Jan 02 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Tottenham Hotspur FC win on 2026-01-01? Dec 30 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Manchester United FC vs. Wolverhampton Wanderers FC end in a draw Dec 30 $10 +$45 +450%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-12-06? Dec 03 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-12-04? Dec 03 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $13 −$11 -86%
Will Athletic Club win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $12 −$4 -32%
Will Juventus FC win on 2025-11-25? Nov 25 $15 −$9 -63%
Will MetaMask launch a token in 2025? Nov 10 $13 −$11 -83%
BNB all time high by December 31? Nov 10 $15 −$9 -63%
Will Base launch a token in 2025? Nov 10 $25 −$15 -59%
Will Trump say "News" or "Media" 10+ times during "60 Minutes" on Nove Nov 02 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Trump say "Kamala" during "60 Minutes" on November 2? Nov 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 29, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Oct 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Solana Up or Down - October 29, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Oct 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Raptors vs. Spurs Oct 28 $20 +$12 +59%
Magic vs. 76ers Oct 28 $17 −$17 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 71% −$164
sports 16% +$27
crypto 10% −$1
politics 3% −$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 34m
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 15¢ $11 35m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 38m
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 SELL Over 42¢ $13 40m
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 38¢ $9 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 51¢ $10 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Under 49¢ $9 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 45¢ $9 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 11¢ $4 1h
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Switzerland O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $14 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 51¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $17 2h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? SELL No 100¢ $8 24h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY No 90¢ $7 47h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 2d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $7 2d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 13¢ $5 2d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? SELL Yes 69¢ $10 2d
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 4d
Will Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 4d
Will China PR win on 2026-06-09? BUY Yes 49¢ $6 5d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 40¢ $10 14d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 14d
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2026-05-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $6 16d
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 19d
Will Manchester United FC win on 2026-05-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 19d
Will Newcastle United FC win on 2026-05-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $9 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-29.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -16.0% -24.0% 25% 25% -27.8%
≤30d 16 -0.7% -10.1% 38% 38% -8.1%
≤90d 23 -6.4% -15.4% 39% 39% -18.0%
all 45 -21.5% -29.0% 29% 29% -35.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.0% 29% -35.0%
10% -35.7% 27% -41.2%
15% -42.0% 27% -46.9%
20% -47.6% 27% -52.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $49.25 · official $49.25 (match) · 87 history records