Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T13:53:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4ffe…9f71
other · 538 markets active 0h ago
1.0score
+$4,476 +71%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$539 · open +$271
avoidriskycopy
✓ COPY-WORTHY ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$8,574
Realized+$539
Unrealized+$271
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses192 / 71
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions500
Markets (closed)263 / 538
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day3177.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit60%
Chart Positions 500 History 263 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$539
7 days+$539
14 days+$539
30 days+$539
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Siga Batista win the 2025 Guinea-Bissau presidential election? Yes 0¢ 14¢ $5 $351 +$345 (+6536%)
Will the United Hearts Movement win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? No 2¢ 36¢ $11 $227 +$216 (+1979%)
Will North and South Korea engage in direct talks by June 30? Yes 1¢ 4¢ $21 $84 +$63 (+305%)
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? Yes 0¢ 4¢ $5 $82 +$78 (+1645%)
Zcash's Orchard pool confirmed exploited? Yes 5¢ 16¢ $25 $80 +$55 (+223%)
Will Brazil’s Annual Inflation in 2026 be between 5.50% and 5.99%? Yes 6¢ 27¢ $19 $78 +$60 (+321%)
Will Waymo operate in 8 cities on June 30 2026? Yes 1¢ 11¢ $7 $75 +$68 (+941%)
Will Ruba Ghazal be the next Premier of Quebec following the 2026 Quebec general election? Yes 0¢ 6¢ $2 $73 +$71 (+3100%)
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 3¢ 13¢ $14 $58 +$44 (+309%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in D-Wave Quantum Inc.? No 6¢ 37¢ $9 $55 +$46 (+517%)
Will Bitmine announce that it holds more than 9M ETH before 2027? Yes 6¢ 14¢ $20 $47 +$27 (+135%)
Elon Musk wins $10b+ settlement against Altman/OpenAI? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $18 $43 +$25 (+136%)
Will Friedrich Merz be the next leader out before 2027? Yes 0¢ 3¢ $5 $38 +$33 (+612%)
Makina FDV above $80M one day after launch? Yes 13¢ 21¢ $24 $38 +$14 (+60%)
Will 1150 to 1199 tornadoes occur in the United States in 2026? Yes 5¢ 7¢ $26 $38 +$12 (+45%)
Will Christina Hines be the Democratic Nominee for MI-10? Yes 16¢ 32¢ $18 $37 +$18 (+98%)
Will Kwa Na Kwa win the most seats in the 2025 Central African Republic National Assembly election? Yes 0¢ 5¢ $2 $36 +$35 (+2055%)
Will Brian Armstrong appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31? Yes 11¢ 40¢ $10 $36 +$26 (+268%)
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? Yes 22¢ 33¢ $24 $36 +$12 (+51%)
Will the US federal government take a stake in NVIDIA Corporation? Yes 12¢ 37¢ $11 $34 +$23 (+201%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? Yes 11¢ 16¢ $24 $33 +$10 (+41%)
Will Elon Musk post 640-679 tweets in July 2026? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $13 $31 +$18 (+136%)
Will Omoyele Sowore win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election? Yes 0¢ 4¢ $1 $31 +$30 (+2150%)
Printr FDV above $50M one day after launch? No 42¢ 62¢ $21 $31 +$10 (+49%)
Will a player representing Sweden be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $30 +$18 (+142%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $345 on June 12? Jun 12 $39 −$33 -86%
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $16 −$2 -15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $60 +$4 +6%
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $16 +$11 +65%
Will Endrick win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $9 $0 +6%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $350? Jun 12 $10 +$1 +15%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 12 $81 +$25 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 13? Jun 12 $7 −$3 -43%
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 8 above $395? Jun 12 $12 $0 +3%
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 12 $7 −$1 -10%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Jun 12 $9 +$16 +175%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $730 on June 12? Jun 12 $12 +$3 +30%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $115 by end of June? Jun 12 $14 −$4 -31%
Will annual inflation be 3.8% in June? Jun 12 $31 +$8 +25%
Will Brooks Koepka win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $12 +$2 +18%
SpaceX IPO: Will Elon Musk Ring the Bell? Jun 12 $123 +$42 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of June? Jun 12 $12 +$5 +45%
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $330 end of June? Jun 12 $1 $0 +11%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $360? Jun 12 $25 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 13? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +50%
Will a player representing Turkiye be the top goalscorer at the 2026 F Jun 12 $1 −$1 -67%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by June 30? Jun 12 $24 +$16 +66%
Will SpaceX’s “High” share price on its first day of trading hit 300 ( Jun 12 $7 +$3 +39%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on June 12? Jun 12 $23 −$3 -14%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 12? Jun 12 $2 $0 +16%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 12 $14 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 22°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $3 −$1 -22%
Will Elon Musk be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 12 $66 −$10 -16%
Will Nikolaj Ehlers win the 2026 NHL Conn Smythe Trophy? Jun 12 $0 +$1 +460%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $51 +$15 +29%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 12 $33 +$14 +43%
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $755 Week of June 8 2026? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -69%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $6 $0 +8%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele Jun 12 $0 +$16 +3680%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo win the Golden Ball at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $12 −$2 -17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $28 +$4 +15%
Will Karl-Anthony Towns win the 2026 NBA Finals MVP? Jun 12 $8 +$21 +250%
Will Trump dance during UFC Freedom 250? Jun 12 $13 −$3 -25%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? Jun 12 $5 +$27 +581%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 14? Jun 12 $16 +$7 +48%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 12 $4 +$2 +57%
Will Marco Rubio attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting? Jun 12 $11 +$40 +355%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be at le Jun 12 $26 +$58 +220%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 12 $7 −$2 -30%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 25°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 $0 -45%
Will Sam Burns win the 2026 RBC Canadian Open? Jun 12 $10 +$9 +85%
Will England advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 12 $1 $0 +24%
Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $22 +$2 +7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 64% +$391
world 11% +$190
tech 8% +$10
finance 7% +$245
crypto 3% −$64
sports 3% +$11
politics 2% +$34
weather 1% +$5
culture 1% −$10
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? BUY Yes 2¢ $12 0m
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $345 on June 12? BUY No 5¢ $5 1m
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $345 on June 12? BUY No 5¢ $2 1m
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $345 on June 12? BUY No 5¢ $5 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will SpaceX have exactly 13 launches in June 2026? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 2m
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? SELL Yes 44¢ $1 2m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $13 2m
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 Week of June 8 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $12 2m
Will Switzerland reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? SELL Yes 5¢ $9 3m
Will Gen.G Esports win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? SELL Yes 44¢ $6 3m
Will Endrick win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 3m
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $12 3m
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $350? SELL No 16¢ $11 4m
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be at le BUY Yes 0¢ $0 5m
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $350? BUY No 14¢ $9 5m
Will Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) hit (LOW) $232 Week of June 8 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $12 5m
Will Google (GOOGL) close at <$350 on the final day of trading of the BUY Yes 18¢ $6 6m
Will Google (GOOGL) finish week of June 8 above $350? BUY No 18¢ $0 6m
Will Google (GOOGL) close at <$350 on the final day of trading of the BUY Yes 18¢ $6 6m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+69.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 263 +87.0% +69.2% 73% 50% +2.6%
≤30d 263 +87.0% +69.2% 73% 50% +2.6%
≤90d 263 +87.0% +69.2% 73% 50% +2.6%
all 263 +87.0% +69.2% 73% 50% +2.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover3177.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +69.2% 50% +2.6%
10% ← realistic here +53.0% 37% -7.2%
15% +38.3% 29% -16.2%
20% +24.7% 21% -24.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8,573.82 · official $13,026.32 · 3500 history records