Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T19:10:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4ffd…7821
sports · 441 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$71,490 -31%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$69,482 · open −$2,007
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$16,922
Realized−$69,482
Unrealized−$2,007
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses193 / 621
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Est. fees paid−$2,604
Open positions13
Markets (closed)814 / 441
History coverage9d
Avg bet$519
Trades / day338.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 13 History 814 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$65,722
7 days−$68,823
14 days−$69,482
30 days−$69,482
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Aurora Gaming 63¢ 100¢ $5,615 $8,919 +$3,304 (+59%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Spirit 70¢ 80¢ $3,768 $4,345 +$577 (+15%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner 9z 54¢ 100¢ $580 $1,070 +$490 (+85%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Team Vitality 60¢ 100¢ $610 $1,015 +$406 (+67%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Team Vitality 82¢ 100¢ $548 $667 +$119 (+22%)
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Eintracht Spandau 66¢ 62¢ $301 $285 −$16 (-5%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Aurora Gaming 47¢ 20¢ $683 $283 −$401 (-59%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Spirit 77¢ 96¢ $102 $127 +$25 (+24%)
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 1 Winner Ursa 59¢ 100¢ $43 $74 +$31 (+70%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 9z 17¢ 6¢ $189 $69 −$120 (-64%)
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D Anubis Gaming 23¢ 38¢ $32 $52 +$20 (+63%)
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner Ursa 37¢ 62¢ $6 $9 +$4 (+66%)
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B Forsaken 13¢ 10¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-17%)
LoL: G2 NORD vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C WLGaming Esports 19¢ 0¢ $523 $1 −$522 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Spirit 43¢ 0¢ $1,016 $1 −$1,015 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Aurora Gaming 39¢ 4¢ $8 $1 −$7 (-90%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 1 Winner 9z 8¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-99%)
Valorant: Team Heretics vs Team Vitality - Map 2 Winner Team Heretics 42¢ 0¢ $179 $0 −$179 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Vitality 53¢ 0¢ $186 $0 −$186 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Alzon (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 Playoffs Alzon 6¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Under 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
RCD Mallorca vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Under 30¢ 0¢ $19 $0 −$19 (-100%)
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Under 56¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Columbus Crew vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5 Under 42¢ 0¢ $37 $0 −$37 (-100%)
LoL: Team Vitality vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season SK Gaming 41¢ 0¢ $388 $0 −$388 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Imperial vs Alzon (BO3) - CCT South America Series #1 Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
RCD Mallorca vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Tottenham Hotspur FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $14 −$14 -100%
Columbus Crew vs. Minnesota United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $37 −$37 -100%
LoL: Team Vitality vs SK Gaming (BO3) - LEC Regular Season Jun 12 $388 −$388 -100%
Valorant: DetonatioN FocusMe vs Global Esports (BO3) - Esports World C Jun 12 $12 −$12 -100%
LoL: VfB eSports vs Unicorns Of Love Sexy Edition (BO1) - Prime League Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
SS Lazio vs. Udinese Calcio: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $51 −$51 -100%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage Jun 12 $205 −$205 -100%
Girona FC vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
LoL: Fnatic vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff Jun 12 $374 −$374 -100%
Valorant: Dortmund eSports vs FOKUS (BO3) - VCL DACH: Evolution Group Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Nemiga (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Seri Jun 12 $240 −$240 -100%
Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. FC Bayern München: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $32 −$32 -100%
Canucks vs. Ducks: O/U 5.5 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Toulouse FC vs. Lille OSC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Rainbow Six Siege: LOS vs INTZ (BO3) - South America League Kickoff Pl Jun 12 $31 −$31 -100%
Valorant: UCAM Esports Club vs MIR (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group C Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Real Salt Lake vs. San Diego FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $105 −$105 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs OG (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship Europ Jun 12 $35 −$35 -100%
Chicago Fire FC vs. Toronto FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $208 −$208 -100%
LoL: BNK FearX Youth vs HANJIN BRION Challengers (BO3) - LCK Challenge Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Hull City AFC vs. Norwich City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. Real Sociedad de Fútbol: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $154 −$154 -100%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs JD Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Real Sociedad de Fútbol vs. Real Betis Balompié: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Bebop (BO3) - European Pro League Series 6 P Jun 12 $67 −$67 -100%
LoL: GIANTX vs Solary (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifier Playoff Jun 12 $70 −$70 -100%
Eintracht Frankfurt vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $230 −$230 -100%
Racing Club de Lens vs. Toulouse FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $249 −$249 -100%
Call of Duty: Miami Heretics vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty League Jun 12 $145 −$145 -100%
Inter Miami CF vs. Orlando City SC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs Invictus Gaming (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Jun 12 $344 −$344 -100%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs HAVU (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 1 Playoffs Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Valorant: Enterprise Esports vs Bonk (BO3) - VCL NORTH//EAST Playoffs Jun 12 $43 −$43 -100%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Jun 12 $2,419 −$2,419 -100%
Counter-Strike: Voca vs Zomblers (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North A Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
VfB Stuttgart vs. SC Freiburg: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $84 −$84 -100%
AHL: Colorado Eagles vs. Chicago Wolves Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs INOX Division - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $144 −$144 -100%
Sharks vs. Blackhawks: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $188 −$188 -100%
LoL: Frites Esports Club vs The Bandits (BO3) - Road Of Legends Regula Jun 12 $42 −$42 -100%
US Cremonese vs. Como 1907: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vexa vs Blitzkrieg (BO3) - CCT South America Series 2 Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Aston Villa FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $583 −$583 -100%
Bayer 04 Leverkusen vs. RB Leipzig: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $94 −$94 -100%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Rune Eaters - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Los Angeles FC vs. Houston Dynamo: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $26 −$26 -100%
CF Cruz Azul vs. Club Necaxa: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 100% −$11,214
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 78¢ $487 23m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 68¢ $2,056 30m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Spirit 78¢ $96 32m
LoL: Eintracht Spandau vs Anubis Gaming (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group D BUY Eintracht Spandau 66¢ $304 33m
Counter-Strike: Ursa vs Leo Team - Map 2 Winner BUY Ursa 37¢ $6 35m
LoL: Forsaken vs Karmine Corp Blue (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B BUY Forsaken 13¢ $4 36m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 39¢ $8 36m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY 9z 17¢ $194 38m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 13¢ $12 49m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 55¢ $168 51m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Aurora Gaming 47¢ $694 51m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 69¢ $85 54m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY Vitality 30¢ $30 58m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 65¢ $204 58m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $55 58m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 39¢ $52 59m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 64¢ $99 59m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $28 59m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 63¢ $176 59m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 64¢ $10 59m
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 82¢ $240 59m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 41¢ $20 59m
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $179 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $127 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $45 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 58¢ $169 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner BUY Spirit 69¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 43¢ $17 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY 9z 41¢ $128 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag BUY Spirit 70¢ $1,259 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-59.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 709 -62.7% -66.3% 20% 17% -37.7%
≤30d 814 -55.0% -59.3% 24% 20% -32.7%
≤90d 814 -55.0% -59.3% 24% 20% -32.7%
all 814 -55.0% -59.3% 24% 20% -32.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover338.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -59.3% 20% -32.7%
10% ← realistic here -63.2% 15% -39.1%
15% -66.8% 11% -45.0%
20% -70.0% 7% -50.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,921.72 · official $16,921.72 (match) · 3500 history records