Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:07:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4ffd…f591 sports 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 197d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$5,064 (+33%) realized +$5,064 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate91%21W / 2L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown4%max
Avg bet$623per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$126now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% +$5,039
other 16% +$22
crypto 4% +$1
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-4.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 -6.4% -15.3% 88% 25% -20.8%
all 23 +6.2% -4.0% 91% 30% +20.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.0% 30% +20.1%
10% -13.1% 26% +8.6%
15% -21.5% 22% -1.8%
20% -29.2% 13% -11.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$967) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$256 vs −$161 · ×1.59 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×16.73 per $1 lost it wins $16.73
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

197d coverage
Net worth$126
Realized+$5,064
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)91%
Wins / losses21 / 2
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)23 / 25
History coverage197d
Avg bet$623
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown4%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $76 $76 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o Jun 02 $57 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? Jun 02 $69 $0 +0%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $202 −$198 -98%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 15 $157 +$45 +29%
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 14 $132 +$24 +18%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 20 $133 $0 +0%
Spread: Celtics (-4.5) Apr 08 $131 +$1 +1%
Wizards vs. Trail Blazers Mar 30 $131 $0 +0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs Mar 02 $3,422 +$2,730 +80%
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 01 $2,454 +$969 +40%
Wizards vs. Hawks Feb 27 $2,451 +$2 +0%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner Feb 24 $1,520 +$932 +61%
Will Booster Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival G Feb 17 $306 +$17 +6%
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs Feb 17 $754 +$443 +59%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner Feb 14 $500 +$214 +43%
Seahawks vs. Patriots Feb 08 $124 −$124 -100%
Will Silver (SI) settle over $55 on the final trading day of January 2 Jan 31 $969 +$1 +0%
Over $100M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 10 $967 +$2 +0%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jan 02 $127 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $691 +$1 +0%
Aster all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $10 $0 +2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Jan 02 $62 +$1 +1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 02 $74 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ubisoft announce bankruptcy by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $50 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $76 1h
Will NVIDIA be the second-largest company in the world by market cap o BUY No 100¢ $57 28d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $69 28d
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In BUY Weibo Gaming 32¢ $202 32d
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs KT Rolster (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 BUY KT Rolster 77¢ $157 42d
LoL: T1 vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner BUY T1 84¢ $132 43d
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 100¢ $133 66d
Spread: Celtics (-4.5) BUY Celtics 99¢ $131 78d
Wizards vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 100¢ $131 87d
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY G2 Esports 56¢ $3,422 115d
LoL: Invictus Gaming vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Invictus Gaming 72¢ $2,454 116d
Wizards vs. Hawks BUY Hawks 100¢ $2,451 118d
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner BUY JD Gaming 62¢ $1,520 121d
LoL: Team Vitality vs Movistar KOI (BO3) - LEC Versus Playoffs BUY Movistar KOI 63¢ $754 130d
LoL: BNK FEARX vs DN Freecs - Game 2 Winner BUY BNK FEARX 70¢ $500 133d
Seahawks vs. Patriots BUY Patriots 31¢ $124 137d
Will Booster Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival G BUY No 95¢ $5 138d
Will Booster Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival G BUY No 95¢ $24 139d
Will Booster Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival G BUY No 95¢ $46 139d
Will Booster Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival G BUY No 95¢ $99 140d
Will Booster Robotics have robot dancers at the 2026 Spring Festival G BUY No 95¢ $132 140d
Will Silver (SI) settle over $55 on the final trading day of January 2 BUY Yes 100¢ $969 151d
Over $100M committed to the Infinex public sale? BUY No 100¢ $967 168d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $227 183d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $72 183d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem BUY Yes 99¢ $74 183d
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $55 183d
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? BUY No 100¢ $464 196d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? BUY No 99¢ $62 196d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $125.78 · official $125.78 (match) · 52 history records