Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T08:36:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
4F 0x4ffb…2d43 other 138 markets active 0h ago coverage 124d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$284 (-0%) realized −$284 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate20%28W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,227per market
Trades / day2.9pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$13
14 days+$39
30 days−$890
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$499
politics 42% −$81
sports 10% +$269
culture 2% −$5
economics 0% −$1
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% +$2
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.0% -9.6% 14% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 38 +1.9% -7.8% 13% 8% -11.3%
≤90d 111 -8.3% -17.1% 9% 5% -10.6%
all 138 +2.1% -7.6% 20% 13% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 13% -9.7%
10% -16.5% 13% -18.3%
15% -24.5% 12% -26.2%
20% -31.9% 11% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
36% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,894) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +3% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$69 vs −$21 · ×3.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.86 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

124d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$284
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)20%
Wins / losses28 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)138 / 138
History coverage124d
Avg bet$1,227
Trades / day2.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 138 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $2,093 −$2 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $236 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $3,750 −$4 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $759 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 14 $1,054 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $329 +$2 +0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $4,324 −$5 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $5,106 −$5 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $832 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $2,138 −$2 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $685 −$1 -0%
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $2,261 −$3 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 07 $60 +$68 +114%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $848 −$1 -0%
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 03 $693 −$1 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $58 +$50 +86%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $891 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $900 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $270 $0 +0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $517 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $668 −$1 -0%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 01 $546 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 31 $2,079 −$2 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $301 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $661 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $312 $0 -0%
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,958 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,994 −$2 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $84 +$64 +76%
Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 23 $549 −$1 -0%
Will ACF Fiorentina vs. Atalanta BC end in a draw? May 23 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 22 $509 −$1 -0%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 22 $604 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $1,223 −$2 -0%
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $690 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 19 $250 $0 -0%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 19 $944 −$944 -100%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $1,512 −$2 -0%
Will Qatar win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $3,304 −$4 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $2,676 −$3 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 29 $1,249 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 28 $3,542 −$4 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 26 $1,353 −$1 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 25 $1,334 −$1 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $2,726 −$3 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $2,443 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 24 $1,232 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 23 $1,425 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Apr 23 $1,483 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $689 1m
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $690 1h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $236 3h
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $236 5h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,066 47h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,068 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $758 2d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $759 2d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,052 4d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,054 4d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 100¢ $329 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $862 6d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $864 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,041 7d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,043 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $960 7d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $961 7d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $830 8d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $832 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $778 8d
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $779 9d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $684 10d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $685 10d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $800 11d
Will the Miami Marlins win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 100¢ $801 11d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $847 12d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $848 12d
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks BUY Washington Nationals 46¢ $60 13d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $692 15d
Will Richard Grenell be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $693 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 451 history records