Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T09:04:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
4F 0x4ffa…6bb2 crypto 62 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (128 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$98 (-1%) realized −$76 · open −$22
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate62%38W / 23L
Drawdown70%max
Avg bet$139per market
Trades / day127.7pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$475now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 90% +$452
other 10% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (128 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 +1.0% -8.6% 62% 43% -5.0%
≤30d 61 +1.0% -8.6% 62% 43% -5.0%
≤90d 61 +1.0% -8.6% 62% 43% -5.0%
all 61 +1.0% -8.6% 62% 43% -5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover127.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.6% 43% -5.0%
10% ← realistic here -17.4% 33% -14.1%
15% -25.4% 21% -22.4%
20% -32.7% 15% -30.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$25 vs −$23 · ×1.06 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$475
Realized−$76
Unrealized−$22
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses38 / 23
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage2d
Avg bet$139
Trades / day127.7
Drawdown70%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Down 96¢ 92¢ $497 $475 −$22 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 18 $402 +$29 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 18 $809 −$16 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 18 $813 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 18 $403 +$38 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 18 $406 +$133 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$28 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 18 $632 −$2 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 18 $301 +$13 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 18 $304 +$67 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $302 +$22 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $204 +$113 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$15 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 18 $327 +$38 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $279 +$74 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$11 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 18 $201 +$16 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 18 $226 −$8 -4%
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $20 −$2 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 18 $152 −$150 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 18 $126 +$21 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$19 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$10 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $76 +$14 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$15 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $163 −$72 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $111 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $51 +$35 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 18 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 18 $51 −$9 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 18 $11 +$14 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $16 −$15 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $8 +$7 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$8 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 18 $10 −$7 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $11 −$6 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$4 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$2 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $16 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $5 +$5 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $10 +$1 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $100 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $100 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $100 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET SELL Up 8¢ $18 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $101 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $101 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $104 13m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET SELL Up 23¢ $71 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $101 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $101 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 81¢ $101 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $103 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $103 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 83¢ $101 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $101 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 93¢ $100 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $101 22m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $474.58 · official $344.91 · 221 history records