Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T18:06:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
4F 0x4ff9…e515 world 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 102d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized +$16 · open −$27
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate58%61W / 45L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$53per market
Trades / day6.7pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$567now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$42
7 days−$49
14 days−$72
30 days−$71
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% −$105
politics 20% +$172
other 8% −$63
finance 4% $0
sports 3% −$19
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -24.5% -31.7% 50% 0% -31.7%
≤30d 15 -9.0% -17.7% 67% 7% -16.0%
≤90d 105 -1.8% -11.1% 57% 23% -9.4%
all 106 -1.7% -11.1% 58% 23% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 23% -9.3%
10% -19.6% 8% -18.0%
15% -27.3% 7% -25.9%
20% -34.5% 5% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
59% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

102d coverage
Net worth$567
Realized+$16
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses61 / 45
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions11
Markets (closed)106 / 117
History coverage102d
Avg bet$53
Trades / day6.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 106 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 91¢ 94¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Iran coup attempt by June 30? No 89¢ 99¢ $50 $55 +$5 (+11%)
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $50 $53 +$3 (+6%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 94¢ 98¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 88¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+0%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 96¢ 96¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-0%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes $92 $48 −$45 (-49%)
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? No 92¢ 98¢ $32 $34 +$2 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $50 $0 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $50 −$42 -84%
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $50 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $50 −$8 -16%
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $60 −$23 -38%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$3 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $50 +$5 +11%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 01 $100 +$3 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $50 +$1 +2%
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by May 31? Jun 01 $60 −$10 -16%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? Jun 01 $60 $0 +0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 29 $128 +$2 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $127 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $60 −$5 -9%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 16 $50 +$1 +1%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 16 $50 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 15? May 15 $50 +$1 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 08 $29 +$1 +3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 08 $37 −$2 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 08 $30 −$6 -19%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 08 $35 −$2 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 08 $73 −$10 -14%
Will Russia invade a NATO country by June 30, 2026? May 04 $2 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? Apr 29 $18 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? Apr 28 $33 +$2 +6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 Apr 28 $18 −$4 -24%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 27 $213 +$95 +45%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $46 +$2 +5%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? Apr 27 $54 −$6 -10%
Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? Apr 27 $63 +$46 +72%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $21 −$6 -28%
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Apr 27 $18 $0 -1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 27 $17 +$5 +28%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 27 $56 +$1 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $185 −$39 -21%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? Apr 27 $28 −$13 -47%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 27 $22 −$6 -29%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Apr 25 $115 +$4 +3%
Will Rafael López Aliaga finish in third place in the first round of t Apr 24 $51 $0 -1%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? Apr 24 $33 +$18 +53%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $36 +$5 +14%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 23 $88 −$9 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 23 $213 +$28 +13%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 22 $6 −$2 -36%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $32 −$24 -74%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? Apr 22 $62 +$3 +5%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Apr 21 $198 −$50 -25%
US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 21, 2026? Apr 21 $30 −$17 -56%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Apr 21 $44 +$17 +38%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $50 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 15¢ $5 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 15¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 15¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 15¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 15¢ $1 1h
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $50 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $50 25h
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 26h
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $50 26h
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $19 3d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $50 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 80¢ $42 4d
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $50 6d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $50 6d
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $50 8d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $31 9d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $6 9d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $1 9d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $1 10d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $50 10d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $3 10d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $5 12d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $3 16d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $29 16d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $13 16d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $3 16d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $44 16d
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? BUY No 96¢ $10 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $567.27 · official $567.27 (match) · 698 history records