Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:18:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4F
0x4ff7…58b4
sports · 10 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$4 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$4 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Net worth$2
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit70%
Chart Positions 1 History 9 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$4
14 days−$4
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 46¢ 46¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$1 +45%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 $0 +1%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$2 -78%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 11 $3 $0 -7%
Spread: Mexico (-1.5) Jun 11 $2 +$1 +68%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 52% −$2
other 39% −$1
crypto 8% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-24.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -16.5% -24.4% 56% 33% -27.4%
≤30d 9 -16.5% -24.4% 56% 33% -27.4%
≤90d 9 -16.5% -24.4% 56% 33% -27.4%
all 9 -16.5% -24.4% 56% 33% -27.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.4% 33% -27.4%
10% -31.6% 33% -34.3%
15% -38.3% 22% -40.7%
20% -44.3% 11% -46.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.52 · official $1.52 (match) · 21 history records