Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T17:42:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
4F 0x4ff3…8235 crypto 431 markets active 6d ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$60 (+5%) realized +$60 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate58%249W / 182L
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day30.8pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$11
14 days−$2
30 days+$48
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% +$49
finance 2% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -49.9% -54.7% 27% 27% -58.6%
≤30d 431 +5.8% -4.3% 58% 44% -6.2%
≤90d 431 +5.8% -4.3% 58% 44% -6.2%
all 431 +5.8% -4.3% 58% 44% -6.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover30.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 44% -6.2%
10% ← realistic here -13.5% 38% -15.2%
15% -21.8% 32% -23.4%
20% -29.5% 30% -30.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$60
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses249 / 182
Open positions0
Markets (closed)431 / 431
History coverage20d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day30.8
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 431 Trades
no open positions (88 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 10 $2 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 09 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 09 $1 $0 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 09 $2 +$1 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$3 +166%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 07 $4 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$3 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$3 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$2 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 07 $3 +$2 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 07 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 07 $1 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 07 $4 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 07 $2 +$1 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 07 $1 +$1 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 22¢ $1 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 10¢ $0 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 74¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 53¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 25¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET SELL Up 97¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 65¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $2 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $1 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $1 9d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1008 history records